On Sunday March 24 I had my second fantasy baseball draft of the season, a 12-team mixed 5×5 Roto NFBC mixed league draft with two catchers. The entire draft can be viewed via Google Docs.
The most interesting part of the draft was I had the 8th pick and in my $500 draft I had the 9th pick and my drafts were completely different. I’ve said this before and I will say it again. The buy-in amount does increase with the level of skill.
Below are my overall picks. If you want to only see my picks please click here. There will be duplicate information between the two drafts because my draft slot was nearly identical to my $500 draft.
Overall, I feel “meh” about my team. If I do win the league my offense will be represent most of my points. After I didn’t get Patrick Corbin or Walker Buehler I was frazzled because I didn’t plan for that to happen. I always assumed I would get one of the two. So during the draft I decided, on the fly, to go with a closer heavy strategy with the hope that if you combine all three pitchers into one you get a top five starting pitcher. That is what I got, but I still need 1,000 innings from other pitchers.
In order to compete in the pitching I will have to mix and match pitchers each week and find this year’s German Marquez on the waiver wire. The bright side about my pitching strategy is I can use most of my FAAB on starting pitchers. Historically, pitchers every year come out nowhere, which is odd considering 360 players are drafted.
In regards to hitting, I hit my home run, stolen base, RBI and runs targets. I did hit my batting average threshold of .267 but I’m literally projected to hit .268. Ideally I like to have more wiggle room for batting average but of the five offensive categories batting average is the least predictable. At the time of this writing it looks like Steven Souza may be hurt (again), but that isn’t that big of a blow because my forecast doesn’t take him into account. Compared to my $500 league, it’s going to be more difficult to win this league.
Below is a brief description about each player I choose.
Alex Bregman – He was sixth ranked hitter overall. In my $500 draft I was able to get him in the second round, but since he was my highest rated player I took him in the first round. I could have went with someone else in the hopes of him falling to me, but I didn’t want to take that risk.
About six weeks ago I had a “do no draft” designation for him because he had elbow surgery in the offseason, but with the Astros giving him an extension told me Bregman is probably fine. Another thing I love is his dual eligibility between SS and 3B. In NFBC having players who can play different positions is underrated.
Aaron Judge – He was the best hitter available. If he plays a full season I think 40 home runs is his floor. What makes Judge so great is he hits for a lot of power but isn’t a batting average drain. In his last two seasons he’s a .280 hitter. Also, he’s hitting second, which is the best lineup spot for overall runs and RBI.
Whit Merrifield – I reached for him at this draft spot because I wanted consistent stolen bases. Bregman and Judge combined will provide less than 20 stolen bases so I needed someone who was a lock to steal 30. The Royals lineup is actually better than last year (you have to assume Jorge Soler takes a step forward and stays healthy).
Starling Marte – I really wanted to draft Patrick Corbin or Walker Buehler at this position but I think both were taken right in front of my pick. I didn’t like any of the other starting pitchers available so I took the best hitter on the board with Marte. He seems to find his way to my teams every year. What’s not to love? 25-plus stolen bases with 15-plus home runs and an above average batting average. Like Merrifield, Marte is 30 and its very possible he stops running as much.
Blake Trenin– At this point in the draft I needed a pitcher and I didn’t want to reach for a starting pitcher. Instead, I took the best closer in baseball. I do not believe he will be as good as last season but I think he’ll be pretty close. He generates a lot of strikeouts and ground balls. The left side of the A’s infield is still there which is great. Matt Olson being out for an extended period hurts the infield defense but not that much. Also, Trenin is one of the few closers that will pitch two innings. Example, in tie games he pitched both the 9th and 10th innings last year.
Eddie Rosario – I love him. He’s being under drafted because he hasn’t played a full season and he plays for a small market team so he isn’t a household name yet. In the last two seasons he’s averaged 25 home runs with 8.5 stolen bases with a .289 batting average. He’s going to hit 3rd or 4th in a Twins lineup that could be better than you think.
Brad Hand – Outside of Hand, the Indians bullpen is unproven and on paper, looks to be about average at best. This helps and and hurts Hand. The benefit is as long as he’s healthy he should keep the job all year. The bad is some games may be blown before it gets to the 9th.
Kirby Yates – I believe the Padres will be contenders this year. I don’t think they can challenge the Dodgers for the NL West, but they have an outside shot at the Wild Card. At the start of the preseason it looked like Yates would be a trade candidate at the trade deadline, but the additions of Manny Machado, Ian Kinsler, Francisco Mejia and the possible emergence of Franmil Reyes I believe they have enough offense and young pitching to make a solid run. Therefore, I believe Yates keeps the job the whole year.
Yasmani Grandal – I had Wilson Ramos, Yadir Molina and Buster Posey rated ahead of Grandal, butI needed home runs. With the change in ballpark not impossible he hits 30 home runs.
Rafael Devers – He has unlimited potential. He’s only 22 and the Red Sox have indicated he’s going to bat third in that potent lineup. Benintendi, Betts, Devers and JD Martinez. Could Devers hit 30 home runs and drive in 110-plus runs? I didn’t project him to do that, but I think there’s a greater than 50% chance he does. Also, Keith Law planted his flag on Devers as a breakout candidate.
Stephen Piscotty – with Matt Olson out for 4-6 weeks Piscotty could bat third in a very good lineup. Piscotty is a safe and boring fantasy player. He’ll hit 25-plus home runs with good accounting numbers. Also, most importantly, he’s going to play every day. I rated Piscotty and David Peralta the same but I think Peralta
Harrison Bader – He struggles to hit right handed pitching, but A) his defense is good he’s going to play every day and B) why can’t he improve? If Bader plays a full year I think he comes quite close to a 20/20 season. He’s stolen five or six bases this spring. Would anyone be surprised if he steals 30 bases?
Yu Darvish – Ideally Darvish shouldn’t be the ace of my pitching staff, but the reason why I went with three top closers was to help buffer my starting pitchers. By that mean, I don’t need the peripherals and innings of top ten starting pitcher. That said, I need Darvish to throw 170 of productive innings, which is something I’m not confident of.
Elvis Andrus – In 2017 he hit 20 home runs and stole 25 bases. Why can’t he do that again? The odds of him hitting more than 15 is less than 5%. Overall I think he’s safe for 10-15 home runs with 15-20 stolen bases with a .275 batting average. Don’t forget he’s going to bat third and play every day in a great home ballpark and an above average lineup.
Jonathan Schoop – two seasons ago he hit .293 with 32 home runs. The batting average was BABIP fueled, but last year his BABIP was extremely low. If you average out his last two seasons he’s a .267 hitter with 26.5 home runs. I think this is very doable. To be honest, the Brewers flat out released him even though they traded for him during the stretch run last season. Maybe they know something we don’t?
Wellington Castillo – if he plays in 100-110 games he will easily be a top eight catcher. His biggest problem is staying on the field but at this price I will gladly take the risk.
Gregory Polanco – he probably doesn’t start playing until mid-to-late April but when healthy he’s a top 30ish outfielder.
Kevin Kiermier – I draft him every year because if, and that’s a big if, he plays a full year he could be a 20/20 player. If I only get 4-6 weeks out of him Polanco should be ready at about that time ;0)
Jake Lamb – In 2016 and 2017 he has averaged a .248 batting average with 28.5 home runs. He dealt with back issues in the Spring but he looks healthy now. That said, I think the odds of him playing in 140 games is less than 50%.
Corbin Burnes – I relied on Keith Law for this pick. For a link, please read Rafael Devers’ summary.
Zach Eflin – everyone loved Nick Pivetta, but I think Eflin has more potential. Also, Tristan Cockroft agrees too.
Jeff Samardjzia – I gave him a mulligan for 2018 and discounted that entire season. The news this Spring suggests he’s looking very good and that stuff looks much better. If he doesn’t look good in his first 1-2 starts I drop him for someone else.
Anthony DeSclafani – He got unlucky last year (3.86 xFIP) and it was his first year back in the Majors after missing all of 2018. If takes a step forward he’s a top 60 starting pitcher.
Forrest Whitley – This is a draft the talent, not the situation pick. Whitley is the best pitcher in the minors and if he played the whole season in the majors he’s a borderline top 40 starting pitcher.
Vince Velasquez – he is a WHIP liability but if he gets 32 starts he could prove 200 strikeouts.
Justin Bour – with Jake Lamb not having first base eligibility yet I needed a short term solution at first base. I’ve always liked Bour and his ability to hit right-handed pitching. He’s batting fourth in the lineup (behind Mike Trout and Justin Upton). Shohei Ohtani probably takes at-bats away from Bour, but Ohtani doesn’t come back until April. At that time Lamb should have first base eligibility by then.
Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright – Since week one will only consist of the weekend games I wanted pitchers who will get weekend starts. I think Wilson is the better pitcher, but I’m not tied to either pitcher. Its very possible both pitchers are dropped from my roster after this weekend.
Tyler Skaggs – I’ve always had issues with his ability to get right-handed batters out, but he’s only 27 years old and almost has 450 innings in the Majors. Of all the healthy starting pitchers Skaggs probably has the most talent and has the highest probability to have the most fantasy value this season.
