Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings for Friday, June 5. Specifically, pitchers playing in the night games, I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.
Despite a large slate of games there is no dominant, must-start pitcher. Instead there are a lot of high variance pitchers. Therefore, if you’re able to choose a cheap pitcher(s) that breaks out you have a great chance to win.
Almost Starts
Jake Odorizzi: $8,600 – @SEA
Odorizzi has given up four earned runs twice this year. One start was at the Yankees and the other at the Orioles. If you remove those two games he’s only given up13 earned runs in 60 innings. Odorizzi is a much better pitcher when he’s pitching in pitcher friendly confines (most pitchers are, but he’s even better), which is why he is my number option. The Mariners are like the Astros in that they will either hit home runs or make an out. He’s been a little lucky with the HR/FB rate because he’s giving up the same amount of weak and hard contact. Even though he’s my number option I’m not very confident in the pick because of his relatively high salary. The major reason why I’m not confident is he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and if he doesn’t have his command the Mariners could rough him up.
Brett Anderson: $7,000 – STL
Among qualified starters Anderson has the fourth best soft-hit average for year. At a high level it makes sense that pitchers who generate more weak contact should be successful, but to honest I don’t know what to make of that statistic because Mike Pelfrey, Dallas Keuchel and Shane Greene have higher soft-hit averages. It’s also no surprise he has the second highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers. The Cardinals are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties, but that should improve as the season continues because their best hitters are better against lefties and they have good players that can be platooned against lefties.
Tyson Ross: $9,400 – @CIN
I don’t know what to make of Ross. He leads the majors in ground ball rate, but also has the third highest walk rate among qualified starting pitchers. What’s strange is even though he has a 1.50 WHIP his FIP is 3.15, which means despite the walks he’s pitched very well. Ross will likely be the number one pitcher for a lot of fantasy players, but if I’m playing more than $9,500 want a sure thing (I know his cost $100 less but you know what I mean) and he’s not. The Reds have the fourth highest walk rate and seventh lowest strikeout rate. So, something has to give and I can see a scenario where he strikes out 9-plus in seven innings and I can see him having an in-game WHIP in the 1.50s.
Safe, Steady & Limited Upside
Tanner Roark: $5,700 – CHC
Given his price point, skill set, matchup and ballpark Roark is the best value on Friday. Some fantasy players may be hesitant to use him because the strikeout rate has been low in his two starts (9.3 percent), but in those two starts his swing and miss rate is 19.5 percent, which is exactly the same as 2014. Therefore, I expect the strikeout rate to increase and I would have said that even if he wasn’t facing the Cubs who lead the league in strikeout rate.
High Risk, High Reward
Nate Eovaldi: $6,300 – LAA
The Angels are 25th in the majors in wOBA against righties and their lineup is very right handed. Both of these factors bodes well for Eovaldi, who has struggled against lefties and has never had an issue getting righties. What’s troubling is he has the lowest strikeout rate of his career against righties. However, if you remove the first start of the year its more in-line with his career numbers, but they’re still a career low. The reason why I have optimism is because his swing and miss rate against righties is exactly at his career average.
Carlos Martinez: $9,100 – @LAD
Martinez has pitched great in his past four starts, but I’m not a total believer he’s turned a corner. The simple reason is he still walked a lot of batters during that stretch (8.8 percent walk rate). The strikeout rate was 28.4 percent and he was generating ground balls at a 60 percent clip, which is why he’s been so successful. The Dodgers have the highest wOBA against righties for the season and even from May they’re second in wOBA. If Martinez was priced around $7,500 I would be more inclined to use him, but I have doubts he’ll be able to continue his success against the Dodgers.
Aaron Sanchez: $6,100 – HOU
Sanchez is the ultimate high risk pitcher. He has a good matchup on paper and he has the raw stuff to exploit the matchup. I’ve always been wary of high walk pitchers and Sanchez is an extreme walk pitcher. Despite the high walks he’s only allowed more than three runs only once in ten starts. Obviously his strand rate has been extremely high (80 percent), but the reason why the strand rate has been high has been due to the 59.2 percent ground ball rate, the fifth best among qualified starters.
Kyle Lohse: $5,800 – @MIN
After his first 6-7 starts Lohse looked like a big regression candidate because his ERA was much higher than his FIP. However, the regression hasn’t come and his FIP has increased to the point where it’s likely he’s no longer a quality starting pitcher. However, I still there has been some bad luck. The line drive rate is up, but his hard-hit rate is similar to the past couple of seasons, which implies he’s been unlucky with the batted balls. The Twins have the fourth lowest wOBA against righties in the majors and the ballpark will suppress fly balls from turning into home runs, which makes Lohse an intriguing option.
Edison Volquez: $7,800 – TEX
Despite his numbers last year and this year Volquez does not pass the smell test for me. He has a below average strikeout rate and walks batters at a high clip. He’s been able to get away with that combination due to playing on a really good defensive team and he generates an above average strikeout rate. The Rangers best hitters are lefties and they have the 13th best wOBA against righties doesn’t mean this will be a cake walk for Volquez.
Tim Lincecum: $7,700 – @PHI
Lincecum’s ERA suggests he pitched really well, but the strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and the walk rate is tied for the highest of his career. So, he’s missing less bats and allowing more men on-base. That’s not a good recipe for sustained success. The reason why he’s priced so high is because of the ERA and how bad the Phillies are offensively. Lincecum may be able to have another good start, but at his price point I would look for a pitcher with more upside.
No Thanks, But I’ll Pass
Jose Quintana: $8,100 – DET
Quintana has pitched better than his ERA would indicate, but it’s difficult for me to use him against Detroit (especially at his price point). He’s faced the Tigers twice and in the first game he allowed nine earned runs in four innings. The second start was two earned runs five innings. Also, the Tigers are really good lefties; they have the seventh highest wOBA for the season. In terms of overall ability Quintana is the best pitcher pitching on Friday, but the matchup isn’t very good.
Scott Kazmir: $7,500 – @BOS
The biggest question I have about Kazmir is will be able to pitch deep into games? He left his last start (on 5.27.15) after three innings with shoulder tightness. Even prior to that he wasn’t pitching deep into games. He hasn’t thrown more than 6.0 innings since May. If I knew I could get 6-plus innings I wouldn’t put him in this section, but I rather take a wait and see approach.
Jered Weaver: $7,900 – @NYY
In his last five starts Weaver has a 1.98 ERA and 0.908 WHIP. However, I’m still avoiding him because he’s a fly ball leaning pitcher and he’s pitching in a bam box. I think he gives up at least one home run and has a higher percentage of a blow up start. He has pitched well but at his price point the ROI is not there.
