Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings for Wednesday, June 10. I’m only focusing on the late games. Specifically, pitchers playing in the night games, I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.
The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. In my GPPs I’m going to use a combination of these pitchers: Dallas Keuchel, Trevor Bauer, Chad Bettis and Trevor May.
*I forgot to write about Michael Wacha. He would slot after Wei-Yin Chen. Tyson Ross would slot after Jake Arrieta.
Tier I: The Aces
Dallas Keuchel: $9,600 – COL
For the year the Rockies are only 23rd in the majors I wOBA, which doesn’t sound that bad, but since they’ve played half their games in Colorado indicates their offense is extremely inept against lefties. I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks Keuchel is going to regress because the major reason why he’s performing so well is he’s generating a lot of ground balls and the Astros are using the defensive shift a lot and extremely well. However, I think in this game he avoids regression against the Rockies.
Trevor Bauer: $7,800 – @CHC
Bauer is the ultimate high risk, high reward pitcher. Command has been an issue throughout his professional career and unless you’re watching his bullpen session before the game there is no way to know what kind of command he’s going to have. Even if you do watch his bullpen session he still randomly loses command an inning per game. Against righties the Cubs are tied for the highest strikeout rate, are only 17th in wOBA and seventh lowest hard-hit average. Lastly, the Cubs put the lowest percentage of balls in-play, which means if Bauer limits the walks he should have a big day.
Jake Arrieta: $9,400 – CLE
Of all the pitchers pitching on Monday Arrieta is the best pitcher from a real life perspective. He has a tough matchup against the Indians because they don’t strike out against righties (sixth lowest in the majors), have the tenth best wOBA and have the eighth highest in-play rate. Arrieta should have a good game, but the strikeouts will probably not be there and I don’t see an overly dominant outing occurring. Other than Dallas Keuchel he’s the safest pitcher, which means he’s a better double-up play, but in a GPP I want seven innings with 9-plus strikeouts.
Gio Gonzalez: $8,500 – @TB
If you look at Gonzalez’s ERA and WHIP you would think he’s having a down year, but he’s been incredibly unlucky – specifically with the .359 BABIP. You may say that a reason for the increased BABIP is the deprecation of his stuff, which is the reason why the strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2010. The quality of his stuff is still there and the reason why the strikeout rate is down is because the strikeout rate is down to lefties (the reason why it’s down to lefties is he’s pitching to contact more with the fastball, which is why the ground ball rate is up. He doesn’t offer a lot of upside in regards to 10-plus strikeout games because he doesn’t pitch deep into games. The Rays are a mediocre offense against lefties so at his price point he’s a solid value.
Francisco Liriano: $10,000 – CWS
The White Sox offense has been a big disappointment this year and they’ve struggled badly against lefties (they have the lowest wOBA against lefties in the majors). If you remove his blow up start against the Twins he’s averaging a little less than seven innings per start so the odds of him going seven innings and striking out 10-plus are pretty good. The price point is a little rich for me, but I can understand the price point.
Masahiro Tanaka: 10,600 – @MIA
Since May 1, 2015 the Marlins have the third lowest wOBA against righties. Tanaka has pitched great in his two starts since coming off the DL. He’s pounding the strike zone and missing a lot of bats – his swing and miss percentage is in the top 25 percent of qualified starters. At his price point he has to deliver 25-plus points and I have reservations about his ability to do that. He’s not throwing a lot of pitchers – he threw 78 in his first start and 87 in the second. If he has only inning that requires a lot of pitches will he be able to throw 100 pitches? If not, he could only throw 5-6 innings. Based on how well he’s pitching and how inept the Marlins offense is, he should be able to do well, but there is a lot of downside too. If I’m paying for an ace I want security that he’ll provide a great outing and he doesn’t offer that.
Tier II: High Risk, High Reward
Chad Bettis: $6,000 – @HOU
In Bettis’ last five starts he has a 2.43 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 22.6 percent strikeout rate and 5.3 percent walk rate. To put the strikeout rate into perspective he’s had at least five strikeouts in every one of those games and has averaged six strikeouts per start. On top of that four of those games were in Colorado and he’s generating ground balls 46 percent of the time. He’s facing the team that strikes out the most in the majors. The odds of him striking out ten in seven innings is more realistic than you think.
Trevor May: $6,900 – @STL
May has pitched great in his last five outings, positing a 3.03 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and 3.1 percent walk rate. If you read my work two weeks ago you wouldn’t be surprised about his breakout. With May its feast or famine with the strikeouts, but the Cardinals are dealing with a lot of injuries and the lineup is extremely top heavy. I see no indication the walk rate is going to suddenly revert back to the pre-2015 so May is a relatively safe play.
Noah Syndergaard: $8,200 – TOR
Syndergaard was incredibly unlucky in his last outing against the Giants as he allowed a lot of weak contact that found holes. I’ve watched all of his starts and he’s pitched much better than his ERA and WHIP would indicate. His hard hit average would be the eighth lowest among qualified starters. If he was facing any other team than the Blue Jays he would be my number pitcher, but the Blue Jays offense is the best in baseball and the risk is too much even at his low price point. If I was playing in a GPP format I would be extremely tempted to use him.
Wei-Yin Chen: $7,700 – @PHI
In regards to projected ERA and WHIP I don’t see any difference between Chen and Jesse Hahn. There are major differences. The price point is much higher because he’s facing the Phillies. Chen’s strikeout rate is up, but the Phillies have the seventh lowest strikeout rate in the majors against lefties. Second, Ryan Howard is being platooned against lefties, which is actually a positive for the Phillies lineup. There are two contrary statistics about the Phillies. First, they are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Second, they have the lowest hard-hit average against lefties. Chen has the 15th lowest hard hit average allowed among qualified starting pitchers. Chen is safer than Hahn, but Hahn has the greater upside especially in terms of strikeouts.
Edison Volquez: $7,100 – @MIL
There’s no question Volquez has pitched really well and it looks as though 2014 wasn’t a fluke. It certainly helps to play behind either the best or second best defense in the majors. If you’ve read my work in the past you know I do not like using pitchers who walk a lot of batters. The Brewers don’t have overpowering offensive numbers, but their best players haven’t been in the lineup most of the year. Volquez is priced appropriately, but I rather take a chance on a pitcher with more upside.
Jesse Hahn: $6,400 – @SD
In Hahn’s last six starts he has a 3.08 ERA and 1.105 WHIP. He’s facing a very right handed lineup in San Diego, which makes him a very intriguing option, but I’m staying away. The primary reason is he’s not striking out batters. During those six starts he only has a 15.7 percent strikeout rate (25 strikeouts in 38 innings). The biggest reason why the strikeout rate has been down is due to the curveball. Last year that pitch had a 42 percent strikeout rate. In the past six games only ten percent. The command hasn’t been there and hitters are making much more contact against it, which is why I’m not high as high on him. The Padres have the fifth highest strikeout rate against righties so Hahn could have a big game.
Anibal Sanchez: $8,000 – CIN
On the surface Sanchez’s strikeout and walk numbers are similar to the numbers he put up in two of the past three seasons, but the quality of his pitches have lost a tick, which has contributed to the highest HR/FB rate he’s had since 2008. He’s been unlucky with the strand rate and the strikeout rate has climbed in his past four starts (24.6 percent strikeout rate). However, two of those starts came against the Cubs and Astros – the two highest strikeout teams in the majors. The upside for a 20-plus point performance is still possible, but at his price point I’m passing.
Carlos Rodon: $6,500 – @PIT
Very quietly Rodon has limited the walks in his past three starts; only five walks in 18.1 innings. Against lefties, the Pirates have the seventh lowest walk rate, fifth lowest wOBA and second highest strikeout rate. Those numbers may be a little deceiving as the Andrew McCutchen was hurt for the first month of the season. Since May the Pirates have only been average against lefties, which means the matchup doesn’t have as much upside as it looks on paper. I’m not buying Rodon yet because I want to see if he continues to limit the walks.
Tier III: No Thanks, I’ll Pass
Taijuan Walker: $7,900 – @SF
I’ve had reservations about Walker as a starting pitcher for two years and I’ve written about him extensively. The bottom line is I’m only using him in the best matchups. I’ve been saying all season the Giants offense isn’t very good, but they’re continuing to hit. The ballpark is great, but he’s facing an offense that’s hitting and he’s not throwing strikes consistently.
