Yesterday I completed my first mock draft; a 15-team NFBC mixed league style mock with standard rosters with five outfielders, one corner infield (CI), one middle infield (MI), two catchers, and nine pitching position slots. In every mock draft players will go earlier or later based on every owner’s evaluation cheat sheet. I wanted to highlight two players that went high in my mock draft as well as have high ADPs that are too high at Mock Draft Central. Please note the format for the “ADP” section reads as follows: ADP: positional draft position (overall draft position). For example, Anthony Rizzo is currently the 9TH first baseman being taken and is going 75th overall.
Anthony Rizzo
Bats: L | Age: 23 |Team: Cubs | Position: 1B | ADP: 9 (75)
During his first year in the majors (with the San Diego Padres) Rizzo clearly looked overwhelmed and it showed, striking out 30% of the time. He started 2012 in Triple-A and made the necessary adjustments to become more prepared for major league pitchers, specifically reducing the length in his swing. The adjustments paid off as he reduced his strike out rate 44% and increased contact his contact rate 17.5%. In only 368 major league plate appearances he had a slash line of .286/.342/.463 with 15 home runs. He’s being drafted as the 9th first baseman, which is too high. I believe is high ADP is based on taking the rates and multiplying them by 600 plate appearances. For example, if he had 660 plate appearances he would have had 27 home runs with 86 RBI and 80 runs. He’s currently being drafted ahead of Freddie Freeman, Eric Hosmer and Ike Davis. I have all three of those players higher in my personal ranks. I would think fantasy owners would learn from the mistakes that were made with all the hype surrounding Brett Lawrie and Desmond Jennings last year. His overall ceiling could be in the low 30s, but he still has a long way to go before reaching that power potential. I have Rizzo as my 16th first baseman because I want to see him do it for a full season before I draft him in the first ten rounds.
Chase Headley
Bats: R | Age: 29 |Team: Padres | Position: 3B | ADP: 6 (51)
Before 2012 the most home runs Headley had in any season (majors or minors) was 20, back in 2007 in Double-AA. Most of Headley’s fantasy value came from a monster second half, where he posted a .308 AVG, 23 HRs, 73 RBI and 56 runs. Petco suppresses a lot of his fantasy potential, but if he gets traded, he has the ability to be an elite third baseman. With a 21.4% HR/FB rate his 31 HRs were fluky and will most likely regress. However, can he hit 12-16 home runs? Yes. If you can draft Headley at the right price he can provide a solid return for your fantasy team, but I’m almost certain someone will see the 31 HRs and draft him earlier than he should go.
