Disclaimer
Nothing discussed/written should be considered as investment advice. Please do your own research or speak to a financial advisor before putting a dime of your money into these crazy markets. In other words, if you buy something I bought, you deserve to lose your money.
The only reason why I am making my portfolio public because it provides accountability to me. Some or all the analysis I provide could be from the top of my head and should not be considered accurate.
My investing goal is simple; to try to manage risk while being fully invested without market timing. Howard Marks said it best, “even though we can’t predict, we can prepare.”
All my references to the Market are only for the US Market.
Performance
For Q1 I returned 5.44% compared to -4.32% for the S&P 500 (without dividends reinvested).
The table below is a breakdown of my portfolio at the end of Q1. What you see below where my entire net worth, excluding my home, is allocated.
Portfolio Activity
I added to my Japan ETF exposure. My biggest new long is Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR). The stock price indicates an economic recession is imminent. If a recession is coming I do not know. It does seem like the President of the USA is trying to reduce government spending which could potentially lead to a recession. AMR doesn’t have much debt, which is great, but they’re using their cash to buy back stock, which isn’t great.
About two months ago it was rumored Brighthouse Financial (BHF) is looking to be sold and the stock price jumped 20% in a day or two. I still think the stock is relatively inexpensive. Berkshire Hathaway, my biggest holding, appears to be fully priced. It is tempting to trim shares but I keep my reminding myself the taxes I’ll have to pay and my price point is so small that the company should provide me 7-10% per year growth. In other words, Berkshire is basically a bond proxy.
Quotes & Charts
“Great outcomes aren’t built on great days, but on consistent ones.”
“Energy without imagination is force. Energy with imagination is persistence.”
“Self-pity feels safer than responsibility.”
Sylvester McNutt III urges us to stop overthinking: “Overthinking is the biggest waste of human energy. Trust yourself, make a decision, and gain more experience. There is no such thing as perfect. You cannot think your way into perfection, just take action.”
“Here are some stats to consider: Since 1966, the S&P 500 has had 12 bull markets and 12 bear markets. Over that time, the market has been in a bull market 80.2% of the time, and in a bear market the other 19.8% of the time.
During bull markets, the index has had an annualized average gain of 21.2% per year. In bear markets, it’s lost an average of 35.5% per year. Notice how the bear markets are short but sharp while the bulls are long and slow. That’s one of the important truths about investing.
At our roulette table, you have an 80% chance of making 20% on your money for the coming year, and a 20% chance of losing one-third of your money for the year.”
Source: https://cws.substack.com/p/cws-market-review-march-25-2025
“In our opinion, what drives returns is the deviation between projected growth and realized growth. While growth is indeed linked to returns in hindsight, growth projections alone do not translate into absolute returns. To earn high returns, you need an edge in identifying high-growth companies among those with low expectations and low-growth companies among those with high expectations. In fact, the data suggests that companies with low growth projections may offer downside volatility protection. Since low returns are already expected, there’s less room for negative surprises, making these companies potentially attractive for risk-averse investors.”
Source: https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/the-accuracy-and-importance-of-growth-guidance?e=e1c5773556
Source: https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/quarterly-letter/2024/gmo-quarterly-letter_4q-2024.pdf
Source: https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1870100211797823738/photo/1
Source: “Over the past three months, foreigners purchased US equities at a record pace of $76.5B,” reports Yardeni Research (via Daily Chartbook). The firm continues, “One note of caution: Their buying has a record of being a contrary indicator. They tend to be big buyers right before bear markets.”
The value spread has decreased slightly since the peak (Nov 21), being now at the 90th percentile. However, it is still slightly wider than at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
Source: https://x.com/HanauerMatthias/status/1878796055221027111
“As we have written many times, coal equities have led every commodity bull market for the past 120 years. The pattern appears to be repeating—coal equities have outperformed every other natural resource sector over the past four years. Their lack of performance over the last 12 months presents investors with another opportunity to accumulate coal stocks at extremely cheap valuations.”
Source: Goehring & Rozencwajg
