Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the first base position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.
Overall, if you’re looking for power then first base quenches that, but it will come at a cost. Outside of Paul Goldschimdt and Edwin Encarnacion the power is going to come out at the expense of batting average. If you believe in Chris Davis, which I do not, then there’s a third player. The second tier of first base will provide higher batting averages, but with only 17-25 power. Based on the construction of your roster during the draft it’s important to identify which type of first baseman that will be needed in order to create a balanced team. Based on the NFBC ADPs in mid-February low batting average, power type of players are going later in drafts. This can present an opportunity if you build your roster with higher batting average players earlier in your drafts.
Tier 1
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Joey Votto
- Edwin Encarnacion
Goldschmidt is the premiere first baseman because he’s the only player who can provide above average production in all five categories. I have Joey Votto ahead of Chris Davis because I’m not automatically assuming he’s not going to drive in runs this year. Billy Hamilton replacing Shin-Soo Choo in the lineup will reduce Votto’s opportunities, but he also had the lowest batting average since 2008 with runners in scoring position. Davis is a very interesting player because last season came out of nowhere. His power is legitimate as I’m projecting him for 40 home runs, but I’m not sold he can on the .270-plus batting average. Encarnacion earns my number two rating because of his consistency the past two seasons.
Tier 2
- Prince Fielder
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Eric Hosmer
- Chris Davis
- Freddie Freeman
- David Ortiz
- Albert Pujols
- Allen Craig
Prince Fielder has gotten himself in great shape and his personal problems should be behind him, but he’s been making less hard contact year over year for the past three years. Allen Craig is this low because I have concerns about his ability to stay on the field the whole season especially if he’s playing 65-plus percent of his games in right field and not because of last year’s low power numbers. Adrian Gonzalez may no longer have a high ceiling, but his he has a high floor. I love Eric Hosmer, but I’m concerned what his true power potential is. There are not many 20-plus home run hitters who hit ground balls more than 52 percent of the time. Freddie Freeman is a player who does everything well, but doesn’t provide anything exceptional. I saved Albert Pujols for last because he is one of the most polarizing first basemen. You either believe his 2013 season derailed by injury and is due to bounce back to the 2011-12 form or the injury only exacerbated his decline. Not to tote the line, but last year it was a combination of both. He has a power ceiling of 30 home runs and he should have a lot of RBI opportunities with Mike Trout hitting in front of him the entire year.
Tier 3
- Mark Trumbo
- Anthony Rizzo
- Brandon Moss
- Brandon Belt
Its possible Mark Trumbo could hit 40-plus home runs, but it’s not as likely as you may think. In the last three years his HR/FB rate is 21.8 percent (compared to 19 percent at home) and if apply that rate the number of fly balls he hits in a season (150) then he would only hit 32.7 home runs. Brandon Moss’ adjustments at the plate during the second half of the year and the limited at-bats against lefties make me a believer in his 2013 season. I love Brandon Belt, but the Giants ballpark dramatically suppresses his power potential. I have a hard time believing Anthony Rizzo will have another sub-.259 BABIP again.
Tier 4
- Nick Swisher
- Adam LaRoche
- Kendrys Morales
- Corey Hart
- Jose Abreu
- Justin Morneau
- Matt Adams
- Mike Napoli
This tier of players are all basically the same as they’ll provide 18-22 home runs with a batting average that won’t help or hurt your ratios except for Jose Abreu. Abreu is a true wild card as he has the raw power to hit 35-plus home runs, but the scouting reports I’ve read question how much contact he’s going to make. I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt Adams was out of a starting job after two months because of Allen Craig’s injury history and Oscar Taveras is an elite level prospect with a much higher ceiling than Adams. Adams did have 17 bombs, but eight of them came in September against possible below average pitchers. As of mid-February Kendrys Morales doesn’t have a job and if he did, he would be my favorite player of this tier. If I’m picking from someone on this list to put into my starting lineup then my draft has gone horribly wrong, but if had to pick one player I would go with Justin Morneau because he could have a 2013 Michael Cuddyer season and BABIP his way to a .290-plus batting average.
Tier 5
- Adam Dunn
- Mark Teixeira
- Chris Carter
- Adam Lind
- Mitch Moreland
- Ryan Howard
- James Loney
- Yonder Alonso
- Garrett Jones
- Ike Davis
- Logan Morrison
- Justin Smoak
Chris Carter is very intriguing because he could literally hit 35-plus bombs if his contact rate improves. Mark Teixeira was already in decline before missing the majority of 2013 season and I have doubts he’ll be productive right out of the chute. If you leave a car in the garage for a year and turn it on, it’s not going to run as well. Ryan Howard would be higher in the tier if he was platooned against lefties. I’m not buying Justin Smoak as he still cannot hit breaking balls and offspead pitches; last year he had the lowest batting average against those pitches since 2011.
