Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the outfield position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.
After the first 3-4 players the outfield position is full of question marks, which means this position has a lot of players with upside and a lot of players who will disappoint. If you’re playing with four-plus outfielders the outfielders you roster will determine whether you win or lose your league. Overall, I recommend rostering outfielders earlier rather than later in your drafts.
Tier 1
- Mike Trout
- Ryan Braun
- Andrew McCutchen
- Adam Jones
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Carlos Gonzalez
When I look at Ryan Braun I’m not worried about any potential hangover effect after his suspension and I expect him to return to the 30-plus home run and 15-plus stolen base totals. I’m predicting 13 home runs for Jacoby Ellsbury, which could be overly optimistic considering his home run totals outside of the monster year, but I’m banking on him getting a few extra home runs in that ballpark. Jones is seen as the safe, consistent pick, but if the ground ball rate stays at 48 percent I wouldn’t be surprised if the power decreases. When Carlos Gonzalez went on the DL he was number one on ESPNs Player Rater. He is going to play a more taxing defensive position which isn’t a good thing if you’re banking on him staying healthy.
Tier 2
- Bryce Harper
- Carlos Gomez
- Matt Holliday
- Alex Rios
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Yasiel Puig
- Hunter Pence
- Jay Bruce
- Jayson Werth
- Justin Upton
I was bullish on Bryce Harper last year and I still am this year because his numbers before running into a wall were extremely good. Pence saved his fantasy season with a monster September. He’ll likely regress somewhat, but he’s a five category player that will not hurt you in any category. Which Alex Rios will we get this year? Are the career high stolen base totals repeatable? I believe so. I’ve never been a fan of Justin Upton from a fantasy perspective because he’s always been over drafted despite the statistical evidence. The big question with Jayson Werth is how many games will he miss? If he plays in 130-plus games I call that a win.
Tier 3
- Carlos Beltran
- Allen Craig
- Matt Kemp
- Jose Bautista
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Alex Gordon
- Melky Cabrera
- Mark Trumbo
- Jason Heyward
- Starling Marte
- Alejandro De Aza
- Coco Crisp
- Billy Hamilton
- Alfonso Soriano
- Brandon Moss
- Curtis Granderson
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Torii Hunter
- Josh Reddick
- Domonic Brown
- Angel Pagan
- Shane Victorino
- Wil Myers
Yoensis Cespeds’ lack of an approach of the plate limits his upside despite how well he performed in his rookie year. I may be too low on Giancarlo Stanton, but how confident are you he receives more than 500 at-bats in 2014? Angel Pagan missed a substantial amount of the 2013 season with a hamstring injury, but he’s stolen at 30 bases the previous three seasons (ok I cheated, he had 29 in 2012). Will Matt Kemp be ready on Opening Day? If so, can he play a full season? He is one of the players who will win you your league if he returns to form. Crisp’s had the lowest average home run distance of any player last year, which tells me the power will regress. Melky Cabrera played four months of the season with various leg injuries before they found the cause of the injury; a tumor was found on his spinal cord. He had successful surgery and should healthy in 2014. For most of last year Josh Reddick battled a wrist injury, which ultimately put him on the DL twice and required offseason surgery. I believe 2013 was a lost season for him and I’m expecting the power to come back.
Tier 4
- Michael Brantley
- Josh Hamilton
- Leonys Martin
- Nick Swisher
- Michael Cuddyer
- Corey Hart
- Norichika Aoki
- Christian Yelich
- Adam Eaton
- Josh Willingham
- Martin Prado
- Austin Jackson
- Ben Revere
- Brett Gardner
- Ben Zobrist
- Michael Bourn
- Oscar Taveras
- Avisail Garcia
- Desmond Jennings
- George Springer
- Colby Rasmus
- Will Venable
If George Springer were guaranteed to a roster spot on the major league club, he would be a top 20-25 outfielder because of the speed and power combination. If Corey Hart can play a full year he could hit 25-plus home runs. If Oscar Taveras began the year with a full time job he could be a top 20 outfielder. Colby Rasmus became more aggressive at the plate and hit for a ton of power. The problem is he struck out more and became a batting average risk. Michael Cuddyer’s great 2013 season was due to an unsustainable BABIP. I bet there’s one owner in every league that looks at his 2013 season and pays for last season’s stats. During the second half of the year Josh Hamilton was an above average outfielder (.287 batting average, .801 OPS and seven home runs). The only question is will that performance continue in 2014?
Tier 5
- Nick Markakis
- Michael Morse
- Marlon Byrd
- Craig Gentry
- Nate Schierholtz
- Junior Lake
- Dexter Fowler
- Carlos Quentin
- Denard Span
- Daniel Nava
- Chris Carter
- Chris Young
- Kole Calhoun
- Carl Crawford
- Peter Bourjos
- Jackie Bradley Jr.
- Khris Davis
- Rajai Davis
- Gerardo Parra
- Michael Saunders
- Oswaldo Arcia
- Matt Joyce
Based on the A’s outfielders to stay on the field I wouldn’t be surprised if Craig Gentry gets 400 at-bats and steals 30 bases. Some fantasy analysts have Khris Davis in their top 20-25, which doesn’t make sense to me. His power numbers in the minors suggest his 2013 small sample will not repeat. Carl Crawford could be higher but how many at-bats will he get? Michael Morse’s biggest problem has been staying on the field, but when he plays he’s extremely good (.818 OPS the past four seasons with 77 home runs in 1,635 plate appearances). Chris Young’s problems came when he altered his swing to cope with not playing every day. He’s going to play every day for the Mets and it’s possible he reverts back to the power and speed player. Oswaldo Arcia has above average raw power and is playing on a team that will allow him to get at-bats every day even when he runs into rough patches. However, he struggled immensely against non-fastballs, which means he is more likely to be a batting average risk.
