Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the second base position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.
Second base is one of the deeper offensive positions in fantasy because there are players in every tier that could conceivably be in the first tier in 2015. Unlike shortstop second base doesn’t provide very many elite level stolen base options. Instead, the position is rich with players who will provide average to above average production in at least four categories. With a lot of these players bunched up it’s even more important to find the player that exceeds his draft day value.
Tier 1
- Robinson Cano
- Jason Kipnis
- Dustin Pedroia
With an early-ADP of 9.46 in NFBC leagues there is a lot doubt about Robinson Cano moving to Seattle, but I’m not one of them. Despite collapsing during the second half the past two seasons Jayson Kipnis could be a 20/30 player with an average batting average. How high is Dustin Pedroia’s ceiling? Last year he had the lowest stolen base totals and isolated power of his career.
Tier 2
- Aaron Hill
- Daniel Murphy
- Matt Carpenter
- Ian Kinsler
Despite coming off a significant injury a lot of fantasy owners are forgetting how good Aaron Hill was before the injury. Two years ago he 26 home runs, 14 stolen bases with a .302 batting average. If you ever saw Daniel Murphy play it would be hard to believe he’s such a good fantasy player. I was believer in his talent last year and I’m not shying away. Matt Carpenter had a really good year, but I doubt he hits .388 with runners in scoring position again. I wasn’t a Ian KInsler guy last year and I don’t believe the change of scenery changes very much.
Tier 3
- Jose Altuve
- Brandon Phillips
- Martin Prado
- Howie Kendrick
- Ben Zobrist
- Jed Lowrie
Jose Altuve may have the most steals among second baseman at the end of the year, but he doesn’t have much power and the Astros will most likely be bad for at least the first half of the season, which means he’ll score less runs and have fewer RBI opportunities. Even though Brandon Phillips is in decline he’ll still have value because he’ll likely either bat second or fourth. If you compare Martin Prado’s and Howard Kendrick’s stats the past three seasons there isn’t much of a difference, but Prado is going 65 spots ahead of Kendrick, which doesn’t make sense. Ben Zobrist’s baseball card statistics were down but his contact rates were better last year. Barring a miracle resurgent year I see his home runs and stolen bases decreasing even more. Omar Infante is going to bat second for the Royals, which means he could score 90-plus runs especially if you believe Eric Hosmer takes the next step. You’re likely not going to play Jed Lowrie at second base, but he’s going to hit atop the A’s lineup and I do not believe he’s injury prone because his previous injuries have been fluky in nature.
Tier 4
- Omar Infante
- Brian Dozier
- Jedd Gyorko
- Chase Utley
It’s easy to see the 19.5 HR/FB rate during the second of the season and say Jedd Gyorko is a prime candidate for regression, especially in that ballpark. However, he’s hit for power the past three seasons in the majors and minors, which makes me believe the power is legit. Brian Dozier’s power numbers may have been lucky because he had the second lowest average home run distance in the majors. When Chase Utley played he was extremely productive. Despite playing in the most games since 2009, but I still have injury concerns. Last year if you had Utley and used a replacement level player (when Utley was hurt) you would have had a season with 20 home runs, 8 stolen bases, 79 RBI, 85 runs and a .278 batting average, which is near the value of Daniel Murhpy. For that projection I used Yunel Escobar as a replacement level player. Therefore, I may be too low on Utley.
Tier 5
- Dan Uggla
- Jurickson Profar
- Neil Walker
- Kolten Wong
- Jordy Mercer
- Dustin Ackley
- Anthony Rendon
- Marco Scutaro
- Scooter Gennett
- Gordon Beckham
- Alexander Guerrero
- Jemile Weeks
It’s easy to right off Dan Uggla’s poor year and say he no longer has value, but Uggla couldn’t see last year, which means he could provide a positive ROI. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25-plus home runs with a .225-plus batting average. Scooter Gennett can flat out hit, but he won’t hit for much power and will most likely be in a platoon with Rickie Weeks. Despite the high prospect rankings I’m not buying Anthony Rendon can stay on the field for a full year and if he did, I don’t expect the average to be above .270 or the power to be above 14. Profar’s prospect may make him a hot commodity on draft day, but if you actually read his scouting reports his value came primarily from the glove. He’s going to be a great player, but not in 2014.
