Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the starting pitcher position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.
This is the deepest position in fantasy, but it’s not as deep as you think. It’s important to acquire at least one tier one pitcher to act as the foundation of your pitching staff. With strikeout rates at all-time highs you need to roster at least two 200 strikeout pitchers (there were only 17 pitchers with 195-plus last year).
Tier 1
- Yu Darvish
- Clayton Kershaw
- Cliff Lee
- Adam Wainwright
- Max Scherzer
- Felix Hernandez
- Madison Bumgarner
- Chris Sale
- Jose Fernandez
- David Price
Clayton Kershaw was really good last year, but not good enough to warrant a top ten draft pick because he doesn’t produce overwhelming stats in all four categories. He was the best pitcher last year, but even so, his stats were not overwhelming. Felix Hernandez’s fastball velocity has been in decline for at least five years and he has been able to maintain success. I see no reason why he falters this year. David Price is staying in Tampa Bay, which improves his fantasy value because of the home ballpark and the quality of defense behind him. He changed his approach, specifically; he started to throw a lot of strikes (at Cliff Lee levels). In redraft leagues I’m not concerned about Chris Sale’s health for the season because of two words: Don Cooper. The White Sox revamped the offensive, which provides optimism he can have a winning record.
Tier 2
- Stephen Strasburg
- Anibal Sanchez
- Homer Bailey
- Mike Minor
- Jordan Zimmermann
- James Shields
- R.A. Dickey
- Alex Cobb
- Danny Salazar
- Gerrit Cole
- Justin Verlander
- Gio Gonzalez
- Cole Hamels
- Matt Cain
- Patrick Corbin
- Mat Latos
- Jered Weaver
- Kris Medlen
- Chris Tillman
- Shelby Miller
- Michael Wacha
- Justin Masterson
Everyone loves Stephen Strasburg, but he has never thrown more than 183 innings in a season and his strikeout rate was the lowest of career last year. The R.A. Dickey ranking probably stands out the most, but I believe injuries caused the velocity of the knuckleball to drop, but during the last two months of the season the velocity returned and he performed near the stats of 2012. Danny Salazar’s ranking may also look too high, but his strikeout rate was the second highest among starting pitchers last year. There are questions about his durability, but if you miss out on a high strikeout pitcher, he could easily provide 200-plus strikeouts. Justin Masterson finally figured how to get out lefties; he threw the slider more and increased his strikeout rate six percentage points. Kris Medlen doesn’t put up massive strikeout rates, but he doesn’t walk anyone and induces a lot of ground balls. Most people would not know he had a 3.11 ERA last year.
Tier 3
- Andrew Cashner
- Corey Kluber
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- A.J. Griffin
- Julio Teheran
- Hiroki Kuroda
- Masahiro Tanaka
- Chris Archer
- A.J. Burnett
- Lance Lynn
- Yordano Ventura
- Zack Greinke
- Jon Lester
- CC Sabathia
- Sonny Gray
- Dan Straily
- C.J. Wilson
- Jose Quintana
- Jeff Samardzija
- Tim Lincecum
- Scott Kazmir
- Doug Fister
- Rick Porcello
- Ervin Santana
- Dan Haren
- Jarrod Parker
Yordano Ventura probably starts the year in the minors for the first month or so, but if the Royals have any chance of earning a playoff berth Ventura is going to have to be in the rotation (and not Bruce Chen). Greinke began spring training (in 2013) with elbow problems and proceeded to no longer throw his slider; that tells me something is wrong physically. I’m not owning him in any league. Jarrod Parker only struck out 16.4 percent of batters, which is far too low in an era where strikeout rates are the highest ever. Tim Lincecum made one big adjustment that has me very optimistic about 2014; he is longer throwing the fastball up in the zone. Before the 2013 season he started looking (last year) at his advanced statistics and realized throwing the fastball up in the zone was a bad thing. Last year was the lowest percentage of fastballs up in the zone. Everyone loves Doug Fister because he’s leaving behind the Tigers infield defense, but the Nationals defense is not a vast upgrade. In fact, I believe it’s a very slight upgrade. I’m also not bullish on Sonny Gray primarily due to he’s only a two-pitch pitcher who saw tremendous success because teams never saw him before. If the changeup takes a step forward he is a tier two pitcher.
Tier 4
- Ivan Nova
- Drew Smyly
- Bartolo Colon
- Ryan Vogelsong
- Travis Wood
- Tyson Ross
- Ricky Nolasco
- Johnny Cueto
- Kyle Lohse
- Alex Wood
- John Lackey
- Hyun-Jin Ryu
- Clay Buchholz
- Matt Moore
- Taijuan Walker
- Phil Hughes
- Francisco Liriano
- Tim Hudson
- Matt Harrison
- Bronson Arroyo
- Scott Feldman
- Zach Wheeler
- Randall Delgado
- Edwin Jackson
- Yovani Gallardo
- Matt Garza
- Wade Miley
The biggest reason why I have Matt Garza ranked so low is because of the injury risk and he has had an ERA above 3.81 in four out of the five seasons. I’m not buying Hyun-Jin Ryu because his stuff average and his performance decreased dramatically when teams saw him for the second, third and fourth time. I may be overly bullish on Ryan Vogelsong, but he was a top 25 pitcher from 2011-12 and still pitches in a great pitcher’s park. I used to be a big believer in Matt Moore, but he walks too many hitters and loses command from inning to inning which makes him extremely inconsistent. There’s a lot of hype surrounding Taijuan Walker, but he is far from a finished product. He still needs to dramatically refine the command of his changeup if he’s going to have sustained success. Clay Buchholz is really good, but can you get more than 130 innings? Bartolo Colon had a great 2013 season and his new team has some of the ingredients as his old team. For example, the ballpark is great for fly balls and the defense in the outfield will be really good. He will not win as many games, but he should still be good.
Tier 5
- Miguel Gonzalez
- Jake Odorizzi
- Wei-Yin Chen
- Martin Perez
- Henderson Alvarez
- Tony Cingrani
- Zach McAllister
- Hector Santiago
- Felipe Paulino
- Brad Peacock
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Mark Buehrle
- Wily Peralta
- Jake Arrieta
- Jason Vargas
- Ian Kennedy
- Jake Peavy
- Marco Estrada
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Joe Kelly
- Archie Bradley
- Josh Johnson
- Erik Johnson
- James Paxton
- Jorge De La Rosa
With Ubaldo Jimenez I’m not buying the last four months of the season compared to two-plus years of bad performance. Once Zack Wheeler stopped tipping his pitches his season turned a corner, but he still has to refine his command. He may be unfairly compared to Matt Harvey, but Wheeler will eventually be really good … most likely starting 2015. There are a lot of similarities between Martin Perez and Jarrod Parker in terms of their 2013 statistical performance, but Perez is going far later in drafts. I ranked Parker much higher because he plays in a better home ballpark, which makes him more streamable. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Perez outperforms Parker. Archie Bradley is considered to be the best pitcher in the minors and if the Diamondbacks are going to the playoffs Bradley will have to be in the rotation. He could be this year’s Gerrit Cole. Henderson Alvarez doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but he does induce a lot of ground balls and doesn’t walk people, which makes him a great streaming option. Marco Estrada is the same pitcher as A.J. Griffin with the only difference is Griffin plays in a great ballpark while Estrada plays in a bad one. Estrada is a great streaming option when he’s on the road.
