Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the third base position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.
Third base is a very deep position, but other than the first tier of players, this position is full of question marks with wide ranging possibilities. Similar to first base, there isn’t a lot of stolen base potential, but there are a lot of middle tier players that will hit 18-plus home runs. However, unlike first base, the middle and late tiers have plenty of young players with the high upsides.
Tier 1
- Miguel Cabrera
- Adrian Beltre
- David Wright
Miguel Cabrera is either the first or second pick depending on your preference, but I do have some slight worries about his potential to play a full season even if he plays the majority of the year at first base. For three years in a row David Wright has outperformed Evan Longoria on ESPNs Player Rater, but Wright continues to get drafted after him, which doesn’t make any sense. Even though Adrian Beltre will be turning 35 in April it looks as though he shows no signs of slowing down.
Tier 2
- Josh Donaldson
- Evan Longoria
- Kyle Seager
- Matt Carpenter
- Ryan Zimmerman
When evaluating Josh Donaldson you either believe last year was real or a fluke. I believe it was real. His batting average will regress to the .280s and he’ll continue to bat second or third for an A’s offense that should be better than last year. Everyone loves Longoria, but I only see a three category player who doesn’t steal bases anymore and could be a batting average liability if he continues to strikeout 20 percent of the time. If Kyle Seager didn’t have a brutal second half of the year his final numbers would have been a lot better. He’s one of the rare players who can provide average to above average production in all five categories. At this point it’s almost a certainty Ryan Zimmerman will miss at least two weeks of the season with an injury, but when he plays he’s extremely effective.
Tier 3
- Pablo Sandoval
- Chase Headley
- Martin Prado
- Pedro Alvarez
- Aramis Ramirez
- Brett Lawrie
In the early preseason I wrote I wasn’t high on Brett Lawrie, but according to his ADPs he presents a good value as he’s being drafted as the 14th third baseman in NFBC drafts. If he plays a full year he could be a 15/15 player with upside for 20/20. He may also have a higher likelihood of injury due to his levels of #WANT, but at that ADP he is worth the gamble. If anyone is going to take this year seriously it’s Pablo Sandoval because this is the last year of his deal. Headley is the Alex Gordon of third base as he doesn’t provide above average stats, but he provides average value in every category. The biggest question with Pedro Alvarez is what will his batting average be? Aramis Ramirez is in decline and I prefer taking younger players with higher upside.
Tier 4
- Will Middlebrooks
- Todd Frazier
- Nick Castellanos
- Matt Dominguez
- Manny Machado
- Nolan Arenado
If Will Middlebrooks is given every day at-bats he could hit 30-plus home runs. However, he’s an extremely sneaky player and is prone to long cold streaks, which will make him a batting average risk. If Todd Frazier can become a .250 hitter he could be extremely valuable because of his 18-plus home runs and 4-9 stolen bases. Matt Dominguez has a real opportunity to become this year’s Josh Donaldson (in terms of real life value) because they play superb defense, were post-hype first round draft picks and have similar raw power. Manny Machado provides more real life value than fantasy value because he doesn’t hit for much power and he doesn’t steal bases. During the second half of the season his performance fell off dramatically. Nolan Arenado could be a sneaky sleeper not only because of the home ballpark, but because he makes a lot of contact. My biggest hesitation is how much hard contact will he make?
Tier 5
- David Freese
- Chris Johnson
- Mike Moustakas
- Matt Davidson
- Lonnie Chisenhall
- Mike Olt
- Trevor Plouffe
Some fantasy owners may see Chris Johnson’s extremely high BABIP and write off his 2013 season, but he has always been a high BABIP player. For example, before the 2013 season he had a career .347 BABIP. Matt Davidson is not a highly touted prospect which makes him an unsexy draft pick, but he has the raw power for 20 home runs and will get an opportunity to play every day. This is a make or break year for Mike Moustakas as Danny Valencia will most likely be his platoon partner against lefties.
