Yesterday the regular officially ended. Usually the first day after the regular season ends is a mix of emotions. I’m sad baseball will no longer be available to watch every day on MLB.tv and I hate the winter…especially since I moved to Portland, Oregon. The end of the regular season means winter is coming soon and the weather will be bad for the next 4-5 months. Also, the end of the regular season is usually full of disappointment because I never win my NFBC leagues. I’ve finished in second and third place before but actually coming in first has eluded me.
However, this season I won both my leagues. After my drafts I did a recap of both drafts: $150 buy-in and $500 buy-in; both leagues were 12-teams. What’s funny is I didn’t feel that happy about it. I mean, I enjoyed winning but both teams were in first place for quite awhile. One league I was in first for the last 2-3 months and the other I was in first starting late August. I know no one is going to read this but I wanted to summarize what I’ve learned this season and in general.
I’ve been playing NFBC for about 5-6 years now and the buy-in amount does not correlate to skill level of the owners. In fact I think owners at the $150 level are smarter and better fantasy players than people who pay more.
Read Winning Fantasy Baseball by Larry Schechter. It was written a couple of years ago but it is still highly relevant. The ideas in the book provide a great starting point on how to evaluate players and how to contextualize each players statistics.
Don’t get burned out. This year was the least amount of baseball I’ve watched since I started playing NFBC. In the past I felt the need to watch the pitchers on the free agent wire because it would reassure the bids I was making. However, by the time it came to put in my FAAB bids I would be too burnt out to put in the hour or two of work necessary. That’s just me not having enough time to watch baseball 10-20 hours a week and do 1-2 hours on the waiver wire. Also, by spending less time watching I was more energized and refreshed when I was on the waiver wire.
Always check the waiver wire. Honestly, in years past, I didn’t check the waiver wire every week because I thought my team was solid. “There are no better players available,” I would say some weekends. Even if you have a great team, check the players available every week. You never know what you’re going to find.
On May 18th, in my $500 league, someone dropped Matt Carpenter. I was in first place and I didn’t really need Carpenter but I saw a big opportunity. Carpenter was hitting .160ish but I looked at his underlying statistics and I still saw someone who could hit .265ish with 30 home runs. I put in a massive bid and got him (below). After I acquired him he proceeded to hit .277 with 33 HRs, 76 RBI, 73 R & 4 SBs. Why didn’t anyone want him?!
Always stay true to your evaluations. Do not let anyone else’s opinion bias yours. I learned this back when Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney were rookies. Both pitchers maybe had 5-6 starts under their belts. I was debating which player to drop (I have no idea why I was looking to drop either of them). I watched all of their starts and deGrom was easily the better pitcher, but I read a couple of articles from authors I respect and they said Heaney was the better pitcher. I dropped deGrom and I finished in 4th or 5th.
Buy $10 of value for $5. A lot times a players name value increases or decreases their value despite their output is almost identical. When you draft players you’re drafting their statistical output. Nothing more, nothing less. If you can get 3o home runs in both the 5th and the 10th round then get the player in the 10th. I don’t care if those home runs come from a player I love in real life (Eugenio Suarez) or from a player I dislike in real life (Ryan Braun). Every year players go much later than they should for no obvious reasons other than their name value.
Position scarcity (other than catcher) does not exist. Heading into this season players at the MI position had more value than the CI position. Growing up in the 80s and 90s the MI position was full of guys who couldn’t hit, but that is no longer the case. I wouldn’t be shocked if 40-50% of the top 20 hitters drafted next year will be at MI. Also, outside of the top 10 first and third basemen there all pretty comparable to the 14th MI.
Have a rough estimate of what statistical output is necessary to finish third in each category. If you know where you’re going it makes drafting a breeze. You will know how many home runs you need to draft and you’ll know what statistical output is on sale. In 2018 it was low batting average hitters who hit a lot home runs. Khris Davis, Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano were all undervalued because of their low batting averages. However, if you draft players in the early rounds who will have high batting averages you can draft these guys and not take a hit on the batting average.
When you’re drafting total up the statistical output you’re acquiring. This sounds easy but you would be surprised how many people do not do this. If you know you already have enough stolen bases then the decision between someone like Ender Inciarte versus Matt Chapman is an easy one.
Don’t do mock drafts. Instead, create a draft matrix. Its not as difficult as it sounds. This is only useful for snake drafts. Basically, you look at the players that will be around your draft position and you write down which players you want will be available. So, if you have the 24th pick you want to look at the ADPs of players see which players have a 22-30 ADP. Example, if Christian Yelich has an ADP of 26 odds are he’ll be available at 24. You do this for every draft pick and all of sudden you created your own mock draft. I love NFBC so much because all the people have spent money to play and they all want to win which means the ADPs are “real”. Lastly, this process tells you statistical categories are undervalued. Like I mentioned previously, low batting average power was undervalued this year.
