The 2021 season ended and I finished in second place; the standings can be found in the image below. Obviously I didn’t get the outcome I hoped for but I doubled my money. To see my thoughts right after the draft please see my 2021 draft recap.
In my last five leagues (all NFBC 12-team mixed league 5×5 roto) I’ve finished in the money in all of them and won three of them. The main reason for my success has been finding value that is undervalued by the Market. I’m going to discuss are some of my biggest draft successes and failures because I believe that’s the only way to consistently improve.
*all ADP data is from NFBC and Player Rater data is from ESPN. Also you’ll see my preseason projections and their 2021 output.
Successes
Tommy Edman: He had an average ADP of 127. I selected him 98th overall. He finished the year as the 33rd most valuable player on the Player Rater.
| AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | |
| Projection | 550 | .283 | 17 | 65 | 100 | 18 |
| 2021 | 641 | .262 | 11 | 56 | 91 | 30 |
I didn’t think he would steal that many bases, but when you draft a player who can steal 15 or more bases you’re basically buying a call option on the player wildly surpassing your expectations. After looking at his advanced stats this year I was too optimistic on the home runs. I think I will project 10-13 home runs for him next season.
Will Smith: I didn’t draft him but on May 16 I acquired him via waivers for a $271 of my FAAB. The next highest bid was $108. I have no idea why he was dropped and no one wanted him. When he was dropped he was hitting approximately .230/.380/.452 with three home runs. However, if his fantasy owner, who actually finished 11th out of 12 teams, actually looked at the advanced stats he/she would’ve known Smith was a far better player than his small sample suggested. Smith finished the year as the 3rd best catcher on the Player Rater.
| AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | |
| Projection | 420 | .267 | 18 | 68 | 60 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 414 | .258 | 25 | 76 | 71 | 3 |
Next year Smith will either be my 2nd or 3rd catcher because he hits high in the lineup and will get more RBI and R opportunities. If the NL gets the DH I may give the edge to Realmuto because I think the Phillies will give him 20 games at the DH while I think the Dodgers will give the DH to other hitters.
Eduardo Escobar: I drafted Escobar (290th overall) as an insurance policy for my CI positions. He finished the year as the 85th best player overall on the Rater.
| AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | |
| Projection | 570 | .264 | 23.5 | 85 | 77 | 2 |
| 2021 | 549 | .253 | 28 | 90 | 77 | 1 |
After my draft I wrote, “Escobar is always underrated. He’s going to hit fourth in the lineup and hit 20-25 home runs with a lot of RBI and a batting average that won’t hurt you.” I think the Market saw his brutal 2020 numbers and thought he was done. He may have been but the price I paid meant my downside was protected.
Mitch Haniger – I drafted Haniger and Polanco (below) back-to-back in my draft (191st and 194th overall respectively). I didn’t see the power coming from Haniger but I knew he was probably their best or second best hitter and he was going to hit high in the lineup if he was healthy. The biggest reason why he was so heavily discounted was he didn’t play baseball for 1.5 years. But when he was healthy he was a very good hitter. Like I mentioned several times already; at the price I was paying I didn’t have much downside.
| AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | |
| Projection | 520 | .270 | 22.5 | 70 | 86 | 5.5 |
| 2021 | 620 | .253 | 39 | 110 | 100 | 1 |
I don’t think the power is legit and he’ll probably be overdrafted next year. I’m going to project 26-29 home runs next year with a .249 batting average. The contact rates are declining and he’s not going to steal bases anymore. Also, he’s probably going to bat 4th which means he won’t score as many runs.
Jorge Polanco – Polanco was unfairly punished in drafts for reasons unknown. If I were to guess it was due to his subpar 2020 shortened season. Quick aside; I have no idea why anyone heavily weighted the 2020 season. It was 50-60 games. So much randomness can occur in that amount of time.
| AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | |
| Projection | 580 | .283 | 20 | 85 | 85 | 6.5 |
| 2021 | 588 | .269 | 33 | 98 | 97 | 11 |
Among shortstops Polanco was rated 12th; the Market rated him 24th. Finding players that are underrated by the Market is how you win leagues. If you pay market price for everyone you’re going to have an average team. The Market hated Polanco so much he went after Willi Castro. Polanco’s power is not legit; I think he’s a 20-25 home run guy with a .267 batting average next year. He’s going to hit in the top four spots of the lineup next year and he should accumulate similar stats as last season.
Anthony DeSclafani: I didn’t have a lot of pitching success this year which is why there’s only one pitcher mentioned. It seems like DeSclafani is always on my teams. I think he’s always underperformed his true talent which is why I always think he’s a value in drafts.
| Innings | ERA | WHIP | K | W | |
| Projection | 170 | 3.75 | 1.20 | 175 | 10 |
| 2021 | 167.2 | 3.17 | 1.09 | 152 | 13 |
I thought the Giants would be very bad this season which is why I underrated his win projection. DeSclafani got very lucky during his road starts; he had 4.02 xFIP compared to a 3.22 ERA. He’ll be a free agent after the playoffs so his value will be dependent on where he lands. Since he had a good baseball card statistics he may be overdrafted next year.
Sal Perez: I had Perez as my second catcher overall and I had zero expectations he would have the season he’d have. The most shocking statistic was games played and his at-bats. The Royals played him at DH for 40 games.
| AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | |
| Projection | 470 | .260 | 24.5 | 80 | 62 | 0 |
| 2021 | 620 | .273 | 48 | 121 | 88 | 1 |
Considering the Royals don’t have a deep lineup I hope the Royals play him more at DH. That said, the power looks like an outlier; kind of like Pete Alonso’s rookie season. I think Perez will hit 30-35 home runs with a .260 batting average. If you look at the big decline in contact rates it’s very possible he only hits .250 next year. If you’re in a 12-team 2-catcher league is Perez a top 20 hitter? I think he may be but if you pay that price he has to hit .260 with 30 home runs and get 580 at-bats. For me, the price may be too high but that may be his fair value.
Failures
Charlie Blackmon: I didn’t have high expectations for Blackmon as evidenced by projection below. The biggest reason why I liked Blackmon was the batting average he would have provided and I didn’t see any decline in his advanced metrics.
| AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | |
| Projection | 570 | .295 | 24 | 93 | 85 | 2.5 |
| 2021 | 514 | .270 | 13 | 78 | 76 | 3 |
As of now I think he was a little unlucky with the batting average but I think the days of him hitting above the .290’s are over. I think you can project a .280 batting average. I think there is more power in the bat. He had 3% HR/FB rate on the road. Maybe the new ball dampened his power potential but 3% is extremely unlucky. I’ll estimate 15-18 home runs next year.
Nick Senzel – I give myself a mulligan on Senzel because he didn’t play much. However, with Jonathan India cementing himself at second base the only position Senzel can get at-bats is in center field. When Senzel was healthy he was sharing center field with Tyler Naquin. If Senzel was highly regarded by the Reds he wouldn’t have had to split time a fourth outfielder in Naquin.
Zack Greinke – I drafted Greinke in the 12th round and as the 60th starting pitcher overall. I thought after my draft I got a steal. There was downside with Greinke but at the price I paid I thought it was worth the risk. Also, I didn’t think he would decline as much he did.
| Innings | ERA | WHIP | K | W | |
| Projection | 190 | 3.55 | 1.12 | 170 | 13 |
| 2021 | 171 | 4.16 | 1.17 | 120 | 11 |
If Greinke wants to play next year he’ll find a team like the A’s, Pirates, or Rays that will give him a cheap one year contract but at this point he’s no more than the 6th starting pitcher in a 12-team mixed league because the low strikeouts totals will hamper your team.
Pitching In General – I got too cute with my starting pitching. I built my strategy on mixing and matching all year long but injuries and Covid forced me to have more hitters on my bench which meant I had to start pitchers I didn’t want to all the time. I think next year I’ll have to pay for pitching earlier in my drafts.
