League Background

This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.

Overall Thoughts

This was my second draft this season and coincidently I had the same draft slot as my first draft a week ago. In the first draft I drafted my third highest player: Corbin Carroll. I debated for a few days whether or not I wanted to draft Carroll again. I ultimately decided not to for three reasons. 

First, there is a very minimal difference in value between Carroll and Julio Rodriguez. Second, if I drafted Rodriguez it would result in me taking different players to compliment Rodriguez. In other words I wanted to hedge my exposure to players and injury risk. Third, in my last league, before the draft, I learned I was going to have the second overall pick which means I’ll get to draft Bobby Witt. If I drafted Rodriguez that means I will have exposure to my #2-4 players.

I’m much happier about this draft than my first draft. My benchmarks for hitting was a .263 batting average with 324 home runs and 198 stolen bases. The biggest change was I was able to get more clarity on injuries, rotation/lineup spots and better strategy (hopefully) that will do better in the early season.

My Team

Below is my team with my projections; not listed are my bench players but they will be discussed below the images:

Individual Player Analysis

Julio Rodriguez (#3) – Rodriguez followed up a great rookie season with more improvement in his sophomore year where he provided above average results in every category. The biggest downside for him is maybe the steals tick down to only 30. I think if he plays 150 games I think 30/30 is almost a lock. Most importantly, his supporting cast is better than last year which means his account statistics may improve too.

Rafael Devers (#22) – Devers was my 16th rated hitter. I’m projecting a .280 average with 33 home runs with plenty of accounting statistics. The biggest potential roadblock for 2024 is his supporting cast isn’t as good as last year.

Francisco Lindor (#27) – I was super excited to draft Lindor. With my second round pick I debated between Lindor and Devers because they’re ranked right next to one another. I projected 28 home runs which could be a little optimistic but if he plays a full season the floor is a 20/20 season.

Framber Valdez (#51) – I wrote about Valdez after my first draft. 

Camilo Doval (#51) – Edwin Diaz was gone when I made my pick but Josh Hader was still available but I still went with Doval because I think his job is as safe as Hader’s but Hader only averages about 55 innings now and Hader’s stuff is on the decline. Doval doesn’t have as good of stuff as Hader but Doval pitches in a better ballpark, will throw 10-20 more innings and doesn’t have anyone superior to him waiting in the wings.

Andres Gimenez (#70) – Right before my pick Nico Hoerner was drafted which increased my appetite for taking Gimenez here. Cleveland’s lineup is so bad I think Gimenez keeps the second batting order slot. Some projection systems have him hitting 18-19 home runs but I only projected 15. What I noticed in my prep there aren’t that many stolen base players that give you power and batting average and after Hoerner was drafted I wanted to lock up Gimenez. 

Andres Munoz (#75) – David Bednar was selected right before my selection but I had Munoz rated right after Bednar. Even if Bednar was available I was going to select Munoz because according to Stuff+, Pitching+ and Location+ both players are rated basically the same. I also think the Mariners probably win a few more games than the Pirates and I wanted to hedge against risk.

Christian Walker (#94) – I was surprised he was still available because his ADP is in the early 80’s. The biggest worry is his age; he turns 33 in a few days, which is when bat speed starts to decline and maybe he only steals 3-4 bases instead of the nine I projected.

Cedric Mullins (#99) – I think he got unlucky with the batting average last year. Yes, he struck out more overall but a lot of the uptick occurred in the second half of the season, which could have been due to two groin injuries. He had a .835 OPS before the injuries and .614 afterwards. I think his strikeout rate is only 20% this year and if he’s healthy all year, 20/20 is very reasonable.

Cal Raleigh (#118) and Wilson Contreras (#123) – I drafted Raleigh for the power and I had a plan to draft high batting player(s) to counterbalance Raleigh’s low batting average. I think Contrareas is underrated. He should get regular playing time and he’ll hit in the top two-thirds of the lineup.  

Shota Imanaga (#142) – Based on my learning from my first draft I made an effort to get starting pitchers with lower WHIPs. I relied on other projection systems to come up with my projection.

Bryan Woo (#147) – I wrote about Woo after my first draft.  

Masataka Yoshida (#166) – I’m projecting a .290 batting average with 16 home runs. He should hit fifth or sixth which means the accounting statistics should be good too. I personally don’t understand why he’s not leading off.

Yandy Diaz (#171) – I was really surprised Diaz was still available as his ADP is in the 130’s. Similar to Yoshida I’m projecting a .290 batting average with a little more power. 

Tyler O’Neil (#190) – I wrote about O’Neil after my first draft.  

Jonathan India (#195) – I wrote about India after my first draft.  

Daulton Varsho (#214) – I think Varsho is a great value for my team because I drafted two batting average anchors prior to this pick. Maybe he only hits .235 but it should come with 25/15 with a lot of accounting statistics. Varsho is a very good defender so he should play every day and should bat fifth against righties because the Blue Jays are very right handed heavy.

Brandon Pfaadt (#219) – I wrote about Pfaadt after my first draft.  

Nick Lodolo (#238) – this is a bet on his raw stuff and hopefully he can stay healthy.

Leody Taveras (#243) – I wrote about Taveras after my first draft.  

Brandon Lowe (#262) – I wrote about Lowe after my first draft.  

Dean Kremer (#267), Trevor Rogers (#286) and Tanner Houck (#334) – I drafted them because they have great matchups in the second week of the season. I expect to release them after week two.

Jeff McNeil (#291) – He was drafted because I wanted someone with a good batting average and a lot of playing time on my bench.

Trevor Megill (#310), AJ Minter (#315) and Jason Adam (#358) – They were drafted for the first half week of the season. Maybe Megill gets a save the first weekend? Anyway, these guys are next in line for saves and should hopefully do well the first half week. All these players could be dropped after week two.

Jameson Taillon (#339) – I thought he could be healthy to begin the season but he won’t be so he will be dropped and most likely picked up off waivers when he is healthy.