League Background
This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.
My Team
Overall Thoughts
I had the 3rd pick. The analysis was written on March 24th.
This draft I tried to deviate from two previous drafts. Specifically, if I already owned Brandon Pfaadt in two leagues I tried not to avoid them so I could somewhat hedge my bets. I think this will be my worst team. I overpaid for players because I was worried of position scarcity. The drafting of Xander Bogaerts is a prime example of this. In a previous draft I got him 179th overall; in this draft 123rd. I think Bogaerts is a fair value 123rd overall but I don’t think I will make a profit, if at all, at this cost.
Individual Player Analysis
Elly de la Cruz (#3)- I’m penciling 25/50 if he plays a full year.
William Contreras (#22)- easily the best catcher in roto and provides elite production for his position.
Trea Turner (#27)- I didn’t think Turner would fall to me here. I planned for Austin Riley at this pick but Turner was ahead of him. I think 20/20 with a .290 batting average is his floor. (He has a .296 career batting average)
Mason Miller (#46)- my number one closer and he was the first closer drafted. According to my models its more optimal to have two elite closers. Maybe his new home ballpark isn’t as pitcher friendly as before his stuff is so good it probably won’t matter. And if he gets traded at the deadline he probably keeps closing.
Josh Hader (#51)- Yes, his season will be a wild ride but he should get all the saves in Houston. This is a player you just leave in the lineup the whole year and don’t get scared when he has his blowups.
Cal Raleigh (#70)- his defense is so good he plays all the time and his offense is good enough he will get ABs at DH; also the lineup is so average that Raleigh will hit in the top five spots in the line up.
Kyle Schwarber (#75)- I didn’t think he would be here but he was my number one hitter so I took him.
Pablo Lopez (#94)- Very dependable and steady pitcher. Should provide 180-plus innings with great ratios. Hopefully the Twins are good enough to give him 12-plus wins.
Riley Greene (#99)- Greene doesn’t steal very many bases or provide enough power for a lot of builds but since I had Elly I can take a very good player like Greene.
Randy Arozarena (#118)- This is a player you have to put in your lineup and don’t follow his statistics every week and month because his performance is going to be volatile. In the first half of 2024 he hit .202 with 12/14 but in the second half he hit .242 with 8/6. In 2023 the half splits were reversed.
Xander Bogaerts (#123)- I feel bad that I got him this early but at the time second basemen were being taken higher than ADP so I wanted to get him because the value dropped significantly after him. Is he the offensive juggernaut of 5-6 years ago? No. However, I think he is safe for 15/15 with a .270 batting average if he plays in 140 games.
Carlos Rodon (#142) and Sonny Gray (#147)- This was a situation where I draft Ryan Pepiot and Brandon Pfaadt but I didn’t want to have the same top end pitchers for all my teams. Rodon and Gray are right next to the aforementioned pitchers. I think if I could do the drafts over again I would’ve taken Gray and Rodon in my second draft.
Yandy Diaz (#166)- I’m hoping for 18 home runs and a .285 batting average with 80 runs.
Josh Jung (#179)- Wyatt Langford gets all the hype in Texas (and rightfully so) but Jung is a very good player. In 2023 he hit .266 with 23 home runs. If he can stay healthy, I think he should repeat that performance.
Jake McCarthy (#190)- I think he plays every day and has a shot for 30 stolen bases.
Tyler Soderstrom (#195)- Like with Bogaerts there weren’t many power hitting first basmen left so I overpaid. He has 30 home run potential and has a chance to play every day.
Yandy Diaz (#206)- I’m hoping for 18 home runs and a .285 batting average with 80 runs.
Nestor Cortes (#214)- He was a borderline top 50 pitcher despite not throwing hard. He’s a very underrated pitcher; should provide 170-180 innings with above average results.
Nick Lodolo (#219)- This is a bet on the stuff and if he can stay healthy.
TJ Friedl (#238)- In 2023 he hit 18 home runs and stole 27 bases; he has reverse platoon splits and I don’t think the Reds have a better defender in center field, which means he should play every day.
Tylor Megill (#243)- Megill looked really good in the second half of 2024; if the trend continues he will not lose his spot in the rotation.
Brandon Marsh (#262)- Very sneaky 15/20 player who should play every day. Projection systems have being platooned but looking at the depth chart I think those systems are wrong.
Jung Ho Lee (#267)- A bit of a wild card. I projected a .280 average with 10/10 and 80/80 account statistics. He’s going to hit third and has better power advanced statistics than his contempories who came from the KBO. So maybe he has 15-20 home run power?
Jordan Walker (#286)- This is a bet on the advanced hitting statistics; the numbers are so good he has to better than what he was in 2024.
Mitch Keller (#275)- home streaming option
Merrill Kelly (#302)- was very good in 2022-23 but had a down year in 2024; I think he can be a streaming option at home.
Ernie Clement (#347)- He has MI and CI eligibility and he should play every day, albeit in the bottom of the order. His floor is 10/10 with upside to be 18/18. His defense is so good he’s going to play every day. The Blue Jays are obviously prioritizing defense with the A. Kirk extension, trading for A. Gimenez and playing D. Varsho in center field.
Nolan Gorman (#347)- the raw hitting ability is there; if gets every day Abs I think he hit 30 home runs
Osvaldo Bido (#326)- very good stuff but command is an issue; he could blow up in good matchups. He hasn’t looked good in the Spring but Bido is a lottery pick. If Mason Miller is traded, I can see Bido being a very good closer if the command never manifests.
Jesus Sanchez (#350)- I don’t know how long he will be out of the lineup but if he played a full year I’m projecting 20/15.
