League Background
This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.
My Team
Overall Thoughts
This is the first year I did four drafts. This will be the only time I do four. Maybe when I am retired I can do four but with work and everything else four is too many.
I had the 1st pick and my analysis was written on March 27th. I think this is either my best or second best team. It’s a toss up between this team or the first team I drafted. The primary difference is even though Hunter Greene is my “ace” in both leagues, this team has a deeper pitching staff. The other team has higher upside (and downside) potential than this team.
Individual Player Analysis
Shohei Ohtani (#1)- It was truly a toss up between Ohtani and Bobby Witt. I went with Ohtani because I was targeting Trea Turner with my second pick and I didn’t want my SS and MI clogged. Ohtani should be the clear number one choice but I am worried about how pitching will possibly cost him some at-bats (due to recovery) and maybe his stolen bases may be capped at 30.
Trea Turner (#24)- I think 20/20 with a .290 batting average is his floor. (He has a .296 career batting average)
Bryce Harper (#25)- Harper was my 15th hitter overall and Turner was 14th. William Contreras was not available which is a blessing because I can diversify my player pool.
Edwin Diaz (#46)- Diaz was my fourth rated closer and was the best closer on my board. Between Miller and Diaz I should have 200-plus strikeouts. Diaz’s performance varies greatly year-to-year but the Mets should win the division and Diaz will get all the saves.
Josh Hader (#47)- Yes, his season will be a wild ride but he should get all the saves in Houston. This is a player you just leave in the lineup the whole year and don’t get scared when he has his blowups.
Wilson Contreras (#72)- Contreras was my second catcher primarily due to he should play 140-plus games, hit in the top half of the lineup and the advanced hitting data indicates he’s extremely good.
Yainer Diaz (#73)- If I knew how the draft would go I would have drafted Cal Raleigh for his power. That said, Diaz should provide above average batting average and if Christian Walker gets hurt, Diaz will bat fourth.
Xavier Edwards (#96)- similar to Elly de la Cruz last year I think the Market is underrating how much Edwards is going to play. He will probably leadoff all year and steal 30-40 bases with 85 runs and an above average batting average.
Hunter Greene (#97)- Greene has amazing stuff; only Garrett Crochet had better stuff numbers. If he pitched in a better home ballpark he would probably be a top 10 pitcher. He throws really hard and he may get hurt but at this point in the draft he is worth the risk and upside.
Randy Arozarena (#120)- This is a player you have to put in your lineup and don’t follow his statistics every week and month because his performance is going to be volatile. In the first half of 2024 he hit .202 with 12/14 but in the second half he hit .242 with 8/6. In 2023 the half splits were reversed.
Ian Happ (#121)- Happ has been a very consistent hitter. He will hit in the .240s with 20-25 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases with hopefully 90-plus runs leading off.
Ryan Pepiot (#144) and Brandon Pfaadt (#145)- Command is an issue for Pepiot but the stuff is so good I think if the command takes a step forward he can be a top 20 starting pitcher. I actually had Pfaadt rated higher than Pepiot because of the A-health grade and 190 innings potential. Pfaadt would be one of the rare workhorses in the league this year.
Sony Gray (#168)- Gray was one spot below Pepiot and I am thrilled he fell to me. Gray may only give me 160 innings but they should be above average innings.
Lane Thomas (#169)- In 2023 Thomas hit 28 home runs and stole 20 bases. After a “down” 2024 season Thomas is going in the 14th round. I think 28 home runs was a fluke but could he get 18-20 home runs? Its very possible. Cleveland’s lineup is so average without J-Ram that Thomas should play every day despite his below average defense.
Brandon Nimmo (#192)- Always underrated. I think his right knee soreness is a little concerning considering his age (31), but if he plays 140 games he should hit 23-25 home runs with plenty of RBI and a lot of runs.
Tyler Soderstrom (#193)- Like with Bogaerts there weren’t many power hitting first baseman left so I overpaid. He has 30 home run potential and has a chance to play every day.
Josh Jung (#216)- Wyatt Langford gets all the hype in Texas (and rightfully so) but Jung is a very good player. In 2023 he hit .266 with 23 home runs. If he can stay healthy, I think he should repeat that performance.
Gleybor Torres (#217)- I was big on Torres last year and he struggled which is why he signed a one-year deal in Detroit. I think playing in New York affected him and playing in a small city will be a benefit. In 2022, 24 home runs; 2023, 25 home runs and 2024, 15 home runs. I think 20 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases is a reasonable projection. I could not believe Jung and Torres both fell to me at these spots. I think I will get a massive ROI, combined, here.
TJ Friedl (#240)- In 2023 he hit 18 home runs and stole 27 bases; he has reverse platoon splits and I don’t think the Reds have a better defender in center field, which means he should play every day.
Tylor Megill (#264)- Megill looked really good in the second half of 2024; if the trend continues he will not lose his spot in the rotation.
Mitch Keller (#265)- home streaming option
Jordan Walker (#288)- This is a bet on the advanced hitting statistics; the numbers are so good he has to better than what he was in 2024.
Ernie Clement (#289)- He has MI and CI eligibility and he should play every day, albeit in the bottom of the order. His floor is 10/10 with upside to be 18/18. His defense is so good he’s going to play every day. The Blue Jays are obviously prioritizing defense with the A. Kirk extension, trading for A. Gimenez and playing D. Varsho in center field.
Brandon Marsh (#312)- Very sneaky 15/20 player who should play every day. Projection systems have being platooned but looking at the depth chart I think those systems are wrong.
Osvaldo Bido (#313)- very good stuff but command is an issue; he could blow up in good matchups. He hasn’t looked good in the Spring but Bido is a lottery pick. If Mason Miller is traded, I can see Bido being a very good closer if the command never manifests.
Camilo Doval (#302)- Doval’s stuff is just as good as Emmanuel Clase and contrary to the Market, I do not believe Ryan Walker good enough to keep the job all year. He’s just an average to slightly above average reliever who had a good year last year.
Chris Paddack (#347)- His first start is at home versus the White Sox then he will be dropped.
Orion Kerkering (#350)- Probably has the best stuff in the Phillies bullpen and probably gets the first shot at saves if Jordan Ramano gets hurt.
