With a starting rotation consisting of Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley and Tyler Skaggs the Diamondbacks could have the second best rotation in the National League. On the surface it looks as though the rotation is a collection of number three starters who do not have a lot of fantasy upside. However, there is some hidden value in some of these pitchers. Below are player profiles of each player as well as my rankings from fantasy point-of-view. Please note the format for the “ADP” section reads as follows: ADP: positional draft position (overall draft position). For example, Ian Kennedy is currently the 26^th starting pitcher being taken and is going 121^st overall.  

Ian Kennedy

Throws: R | Age: 28 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 26 (121)

Compared to 2011, Kennedy had a down year. His ERA went from 2.88 to 4.02 and his WHIP increased from 1.09 to 1.30. Upon a closer look at the BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates – .270, 79.2% and 9.6% respectively, it’s clear the 2011 season was unsustainable and was bound to regress, which it did. Despite the ERA there wasn’t a big difference between the previous two seasons; he maintained his strikeout and walk percentages, which gives me hope he can a solid number three fantasy starter. He’s currently going 26^th overall, which is too high. I bet fantasy owners are betting on a return to his 2011 season, which is a mistake. I’d draft him as 180K, 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP pitcher.

Wade Miley

Throws: L | Age: 26 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 52 (208)

Miley came out of nowhere (in terms of fantasy hype) and came within seven points of winning the NL Rookie of the Year. He throws a lot of strikes (tenth most in the majors) and relies on location to get outs. He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph. He has a deep bag of secondary pitches including a changeup, slider, and curveball. His best secondary pitch is the changeup because of the downward fading action. His curveball can be very hittable, as it’s left up in the zone too often. If he improves the quality of his curveball he’s the front runner for the best fantasy starter. If that doesn’t happen his ERA will regress to the high 3s and have a 1.20 WHIP.

Trevor Cahill

Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 53 (212)

Based on last year’s results, it’s no question the Diamondbacks got the lower end of the stick in the Cahill, Jarrod Parker deal. However, Cahill wasn’t a slouch, posting a 3.78 ERA with 156 Ks. To say Cahill is a ground ball pitcher is an understatement; he led the league in ground ball percentage (among qualified pitchers). There is hope Cahill can improve in 2013 with the addition of either Didi Gregorius or Cliff Pennington, who are both plus-plus defenders, to play shortstop. Also, Martin Prado is replacing Ryan Roberts at third base, which is also a defensive upgrade. Cahill can provide 150Ks with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Brandon McCarthy

Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 83 (242)

Injuries aside let’s discuss his 2012 season. He threw less strikes, his strikeout rate dropped slightly (15.6% from 17.8%), his walk percentage increased slightly (5.1% from
3.6%), and his GB% dropped five percentage points. Despite the decline, the quality of his pitches remained intact. The likelihood of him missing time is greater than most pitchers, but when he’s in there he’ll pound the strike zone, generate ground balls and give fantasy owners a very healthy WHIP and ERA. Even though it’s counter intuitive, pitching in Arizona, a NL team, hurts his value slightly compared his previous home park in Oakland. I bet when his career is over his 2011 season will be the best in his career.

Tyler Skaggs

Throws: L | Age: 21 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 116 (327)

Unlike Wade Miley, Skaggs enters training camp as the Diamondbacks number one prospect (according to Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law) and therefore, comes with a lot of fantasy hype. Like Miley, Skaggs throws a ton of strikes and has a body to throw a lot of innings. Two years ago his fastball velocity ticked up where he’s now sitting in the low 90s and can touch 94 mph. Even though he sits in the low 90s, his delivery makes the batters feel like its two to three mph faster than what it really is. His curveball is his best secondary pitch. It’s a traditional 12-6 curveball that has excellent depth and can range between 74-78 mph. His changeup will flash plus (above average) with good fading action. If he can improve his command of either his fastball or if the changeup can become a true 60 pitch he could be a high end number three starter, which is the highest of any pitcher on the Diamondbacks.

Now it’s time to unveil my rankings:

1. Tyler Skaggs
2. Ian Kennedy
3. Brandon McCarthy
4. Trevor Cahill
5. Wade Miley