With draft day soon upon us it’s time to focus less on player evaluation and more on player value. I’m so excited about the start of the season I’m literally thinking about player values in my sleep. All my evaluations and analysis will be under the assumption of a 12-team NFBC mixed league with two catchers, one middle infield, one corner infield, one utility, five outfielders and nine pitcher spots. Also, all ADPs are from NFBC. If you never heard of NFBC before and you’re looking to play for high stakes, you should really check them out; they’re a lot better than CBS.

Before I begin just because a player is on a hate or love list doesn’t mean I do or do not like a player. Instead, it’s based on the potential profit or loss of the current ADP (average draft position) of each player.

So let’s begin.

Take a look at the slugging percentage timeline for the player below. What’s your overall impression of the trend? You don’t have to be stat head to realize this player has been in decline since 2008. Now, what if I told you this player was being drafted 7^th/8^th overall. This player is Albert Pujols. I’m big believer you cannot win your league, but you can lose it. A few weeks ago I learned only half of the players drafted in the top 10 finished the year as a top 40 player. I approach the first two or three rounds looking for players who have a great likelihood of finishing the year within 10-15 spots of their draft position. Pujols has a low ceiling and has a low floor, which means there’s a higher likelihood he finishes the year outside of the top 20.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers
ADP: 31.54
Despite playing the most games he’s ever played in his career, Kinsler only finished 5^th on ESPNs Player Rater among second basemen. He has 30/30 upside and plays at a relatively weak position so it’s understandable for his ADP to be this high, but there a lot of red flags. First, his home-road splits are skewed heavily towards playing in Arlington (table below). If he continues to be a <.227 hitter on the road I don’t see him hitting .280 again. Second, Lance Berkman is replacing Josh Hamilton in the lineup. No matter how good Berkman is, he’s not going to provide the production Hamilton provided. Therefore, his run totals are likely to decrease, especially if his OBP is below .330 again.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 5.75
McCutchen had a great year last year, hitting 31 home runs and putting up a slash line of .327/.400/.553 along with 20 stolen bases. His current ADP suggests he’s going to repeat those numbers, but I have my doubts. His .327 batting average was aided by a .375 BABIP. Before last year his career batting average was .276. Second, most of his fantasy value came in the first half of the season. 58% of his home runs and 70% of his stolen bases came in the first of the season. His slash line in the first half was .362/.414/.625 compared to .289/.385/.475 in the second half of the year. Third, his stolen bases have decreased year over year for the past three years, reaching a career low of 20 last year.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 41.96
I do not understand the love for Goldschmidt. Suppose he only hit 19 home runs last year instead of 20. Would the fantasy hype surrounding him wouldn’t nearly be as high? Most of Goldschmidt’s fantasy value came from (surprisingly) his 18 stolen bases. He’s a well below average runner (30-35 on the 20-80 scale) and I can’t see him coming close to 18 again. I want power from my first baseman and he doesn’t provide enough power upside to warrant being taken ahead of a Billy Butler or Allen Craig. He has 30+ home run power, but I don’t see him hitting any more than 25 home runs.

Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
ADP: 45.64
I do not hide my dislike for the Giants organization and their players, but he’s going as the 7^th starting pitcher in drafts. I have a lot of concerns about Cain. His fastball velocity has dropped from 93.23 mph in 2009 to only 91.84 in 2012. A decrease in velocity is common for most pitchers as they age. Even though it’s a marginal decrease in velocity it could have a dramatic impact on Cain’s performance in 2013. He loves to pitch high in the zone with this fastball; he ranked 13^th among starting pitchers. It’s easier to get away with those fastballs up in the zone if he’s throwing 92-95, but if he’s throwing 90-93 those pitches become more hittable. He plays in a home ballpark where more fly balls will stay in the ballpark, but this may not be the case when he pitches on the road. If he performs worse on the road, you have a top 15 pitcher instead of a top 7 pitcher.

Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
ADP: 58.11
Desmond is going as the 5^th shortstop, ahead of Jimmy Rollins and Asdrubal Cabrera. Shortstop is an extremely shallow position, but Desmond provides a lot of risk. Before last year his career batting average was .262, 30 points lower than the .292 average he hit last year. He struck out nearly 21% of the time last year; I don’t trust players who strikeout that much to maintain an abnormally high batting average. In the past three seasons his home run totals have been 10, 8, and 25. I bet his 24% HR/FB rate regresses and he maybe hits 12-15 home runs this year.

Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP: 75.39
Lawrie was one of the most hyped players entering the 2012 season, having an ADP of 49 in ESPN standard leagues. A month ago I thought his draft day value would be extremely low because of his poor 2012 season. Instead, he’s still being overvalued. He’s currently going ahead of Alex Gordon, Austin Jackson, and CC Sabathia, which is crazy. I’d gladly take all of those players ahead of Lawrie. Supposing everyone is healthy at the start of the season Lawrie will most likely bat 6^th or 7^th lineup, which means there will be fewer RBI opportunities and his run totals will be suppressed. His ultimate ceiling is a 30/30 player, but most players never come close to reaching their ceiling; realistically he’s a 15/15 player with .285 batting average in 2013.

Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 168.71
Jansen is currently going 18^th among relievers. Jansen is a great pitcher, but he is not the closer of the Dodgers; Brandon League is the closer. I’m not going to say League is a better pitcher than Jansen because he’s not. This offseason League received closer’s money with a three year $22.5 million dollar contract; therefore, he will get every opportunity to keep the closer job. Also, Jansen isn’t the picture of great health; for two years in a row he’s missed time because of a heart ailment. Jansen did have surgery in the offseason to correct the issue.