Yesterday I wrote about players to avoid in your drafts. Now it’s time for me show optimism. All my evaluations and analysis will be under the assumption of a 12-team NFBC mixed league with two catchers, one middle infield, one corner infield, one utility, five outfielders and nine pitcher spots. Also, all ADPs are from NFBC. If you never heard of NFBC before and you’re looking to play for high stakes, you should really check them out; they’re a lot better than CBS.
Before I begin just because a player is on a hate or love list doesn’t mean I do or do not like a player. Instead, it’s based on the potential profit or loss of the current ADP (average draft position) of each player.
So let’s begin.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 90.93
Prior to the 2012 season every scout and publication hailed Hosmer as the next super star. It’s no surprise the hype surrounding him grew among the fantasy community. The hype was so high he was the 53rd player taken off the board in ESPN leagues. Hosmer’s season was very similar to Ike Davis’ season in that he started the year in the hole and he couldn’t dig his way out. That wasn’t the only contributor to his poor season; there were off the field problems that I cannot speak about that weighed him down. The super star ceiling is still there and during the 2013 season he takes a giant leap towards that ceiling.
Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Rays
ADP: 231.86
I’ve gone back and forth on the fantasy viability of Wil Myers for the 2013 season. He’s currently going in the 24th round which could seem too high because he’s currently in Triple-A. However, I bet he’ll be in the Majors after the first two weeks of the season. First of all, they Rays offense stinks; they have Luke Scott and Matt Joyce batting in the middle of their order. Winning the division could come down to one or two wins. Therefore, giving Myers’ at-bats to Scott over Myers could cost them a game or two. I used to believe the Rays would hold him back two months to avoid the Super 2 status, but the Rays have always been more concerned with service time. The MLB season is 183 days and in order to officially accrue a year of service time requires a player to be on the roster 172+ days. If a player plays less than that, even if its 171 games, it doesn’t count as a full year. Remember what the Rays did with Evan Longoria? They brought him up a day or after the 172 deadline and gave him a long term deal. I bet this is what will happen with Myers. I’d like to thank The Baseball Show with Rany & Joe for giving me this perspective.
Hiroki Kuroda, SP, New York Yankees
ADP: 163.18
Kuroda is as sexy of a fantasy player as the idea of the next Katherine Heigl movie, which is no surprise he’s being undervalued in drafts. He’s a smart, adaptive pitcher who knows how to pitch. Most importantly, he’s been extremely consistent the past three seasons; three straight years of an ERA under 3.39 with a strikeout rate greater than 18.7%. With the Yankees clubhouse becoming an infirmary, the potential for 15+ wins is not as high as it was in the pre-season.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, New York Mets
ADP: 286.95
Murphy is currently going 16th among second basemen, right after Omar Infante. After missing the 2010-11 seasons due to injury, Murphy showed he was fully healthy, playing in 156 games last year. His greatest fantasy asset is his .290+ batting average potential. If he hits second in the lineup, in front of David Wright and Ike Davis, he could provide 85+ runs. Do not under estimate the batting average and runs categories, the two most overlooked offensive statistics in drafts. He’ll most likely start the season the DL with an intercostal strain, but I’m going to target him in every draft.
Josh Reddick, OF, Oakland Athletics
ADP: 164.43
Most fantasy owners would be surprised to hear Reddick had 11 stolen bases last year to go along with his 32 home runs last year. He’s currently going as the 40th outfielder, which is probably due to his .242 batting average. His batting average could have been better if it wasn’t for a September slump; before September he was hitting .262. He’s likely to hit in the middle of the Athletics lineup the entire year and will have a lot of RBI opportunities. He strikes out too much (22% strikeout rate) to have batting average ceiling greater than .270 though.
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Rays
ADP: 203.36
Hellickson is the 26th starting pitcher on my board, but is going as the 47th starting pitcher overall. Every sabermetrician keeps waiting for the bubble to burst; every year he’s pitched in the Majors his ERA has been less than his FIP and xFIP; also his strand rate has been above 80%. I know I’ve mentioned this cliché twice, but he just knows how to pitch. In his entire career he’s given up 51 home runs and only 11 of them were with men on base!
Chris Carter, 1B, Houston Astros
ADP: 322.38
I’ve already professed for my love for Carter weeks ago, even before the trade to the Astros, and I’m going to do it again. His power potential is enormous and he’s finally going to get an opportunity to play every without fear he’ll be sent down to Triple-A if he has a bad two week stretch. If he receives 580 plate appearances he has the raw power to hit 35+ home runs. However, he does have a lot of swing and miss so expect a batting average in the .230s. Also, he’s been playing in left field this spring, so he could have outfield eligibility after the first three weeks of the season.
