I just finished watching Jose Fernandez’s dazzling debut against the Mets where he struck out eight batters in five innings. Fernandez is one of the rare pitchers to not pitch above Double-A before getting the call up to the Majors. During most of the game, especially when pitching out of the windup, he looked absolutely dominant, making Big League hitters look foolish. If you don’t believe me checkout the last strike of all of his strikeouts.
Image Source: Baseball Prospectus
He featured a fastball, curveball, changeup and slurve, a slider-curveball hybrid. The fastball, thrown in the mid-90s with explosive movement, had whiff rate of 28%, 16th among starters. The secondary offering he used the most was the curveball. It had good depth, played well with the fastball. Most importantly, he threw it for strikes and for swinging strikes out of the zone. He only threw a couple of slurves and changeups, but showed excellent potential. What impressed me the most was his poise and that he called his own game; there were multiple shots of him shaking off Rob Brantly.
Not everything was roses and sunshine about his start though. He struggled when he pitched from the stretch; his control was looser and lost some power in the delivery. To be honest, this is true for most pitchers, but it is still something he’ll have to work on.
If you’re in a dynasty league he’s a must own, but let’s talk about his fantasy potential for one year leagues. There’s no doubt Fernandez has all the ingredients to be a fantasy stud, but that’s not going to happen in 2013. Although he had an impressive debut, it’s easy to forget there wasn’t much information about him the Mets hitters could use to prepare for the game. I guarantee you after a couple of starts the League will adjust to him and he’ll have to make further adjustments, which will be more difficult because he’s still trying to refine his secondary offerings. Yesterday he had a pitch cap of 85 pitches, which means he’ll be lucky to pitch beyond the 5th inning, therefore lowering the likelihood he will be able to generate wins. The Marlins have said they’re capping him to 150 to 165 innings, which will allow him to pitch until late July, early August before being shut down. On Sunday Fernandez will be available in NFBC Leagues and I’ll make a bid of $15, but I believe he’ll go for at least double that. He should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues with a deep bench, but if you’re in a standard 10-team ESPN league with three bench spots I don’t recommend picking him up.
