Every NFBC owner scours the waiver wire every weekend before making potential bids with their FAAB budget. Below are players, broken down by statistical need, you could add to your fantasy roster.The format of the player capsules are now: name, position, team, percent owned (in 12-team NFBC Leagues).
Home Runs
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies, 58%: Odds are you’ve already read a lot about his call up, but my take on him is he’s going to go for a lot of FAAB dollars on Sunday. Assuming he plays a full year he’ll probably hit 20 home runs with a .260-.270 batting average. I’m going to bid in the $20-50 range for him, but I’m sure he’ll go for at least double that. If I were able to own him, I would stream him, playing him in games where he’s at home and benching him when he’s on the road. I would try to him with another corner infielder with dramatic home-road splits because that would enhance the overall offensive output of both players. Examples include: Brandon Moss, Yonder Alonso and Mitch Moreland. For more information about this strategy checkout my previous article about the two players for one position strategy.
Matt Joyce, OF, Rays, 60%: What a difference a week can have. For the first three weeks of the season Joyce had a slash line of, in 54 at-bats, .185/.228/.315 with two home runs, three walks and 13 strikeouts. In his last five games he has four home runs and has a slash line of .318/.400/.864, giving him a total of six home runs this season. With a huge platoon split against lefties, Joyce primarily plays against right handed batters, but he can provide solid 16-22 home runs.
Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Twins, 40%: As long as Arcia is in the big leagues, he’
going to play. In a limited 44 plate appearances Arcia already has two home runs, but carries a .220 batting average and 22 percent strikeout rate. He has the tools to be an extremely productive fantasy (and real life) player, but I’m always hesitant to buy-in on prospects who only played in Double-A before being promoted to the Majors. With power being extreme scarce, Arica is someone worth picking up if you’re willing to have a batting average in the .230 range.
Stolen Bases
Rajai Davis, OF, Blue Jays, 85% : For the past four seasons Davis has averaged 43 stolen bases and is always overlooked by the fantasy community during drafts because the lack of a starting job to begin the season. However, it seems as though he always finds his way to at-bats. This is evidenced by the average of 421 at-bats in that same time frame. With the struggles of Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus, Davis could generate even more playing time than he’s currently getting; he’s received two or more at-bats in 52 percent of the Blue Jays’ games so far.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres, 73%: Maybin began the year very slowly, hitting .091/.167/.121 in 37 plate appearances. A few days ago he was put on the DL with a sore right wrist, whichcould have contributed to his poor start. He’s the perfect buy low candidate because he’s two years removed from a 40 steal season and averages 8-9 home runs a year and is only 26 years old. It looks as though he’s not recovering as quickly as the Padres hoped and he could be on the DL until the middle of May. Monitor his recovery status before putting in a bid on him.
Speculative Saves
Sean Doolittle, RP, Athletics, 9% : I’ll fully admit this is gut pick, but if you’re looking to handcuff Grant Balfour then Doolittle is the pitcher you want on your roster. Ryan Cook got the saves last year when Balfour stumbled, but those save opportunities occurred when Doolittle was pitching in the minors. During the last two months of the 2012 season and during this season Doolittle has pitched the highest leveraged innings of every game he appeared in and with good reason. Doolittle has pitched 54.2 innings in his career and has 66 strikeouts, 14 walks and only has allowed four home runs.
Frank Francisco, RP, Mets, 9%: Every Bobby Parnell owner should add Francisco now in order to handcuff the Mets saves. Francisco has only pitched two innings in High-A, but could back with the Mets in the next week or two. Terry Collins hasn’t fully committed to Parnell when asked about Francisco’s return from the DL. Parnell is the better reliever so I don’t expect him to lose the job, but Collins’ in-game decisions have me scratching my head more times than not so it’s better to grab Francisco while he’s cheap before his value could increase exponentially.
Starting Pitching
Brandon McCarthy, SP, Diamondbacks, 54% : I have no idea why fantasy owners are jumping ship so quickly on McCarthy. In the two seasons (in Oakland) prior to 2013 he has a 3.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 17 percent strikeout rate. Two weeks ago he was dropped in my 15-team NFBC league and I picked up for $32; no one else put a bid on him, which means I could’ve acquired him for $1. That’s insane! McCarthy’s .393 BABIP and 58 percent LOB rate are bound to regress to the mean. However, there is a reason why his BABIP is so high and I believe it’s the location of his sinker, one of his two primary pitches. Like with most sinker ballers, they make their living on the bottom half of the strike zone. Checkout where his sinkers have been thrown this season (image below); it looks like he’s been pitching up the zone a lot. The quality of his stuff remains the same, which is great because his struggles are primarily mechanical. Go get him!
Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles, 61% his BABIP is so high and I believe it’s the location of his sinker, one of his two primary pitches. Like with most sinker ballers, they make their living on the bottom half of the strike zone. Checkout where his sinkers have been thrown this season (image below); it looks like he’s been pitching up the zone a lot. The quality of his stuff remains the same, which is great because his struggles are primarily mechanical. Go get him!: Tillman’s brilliant performance Thursday night lowered his baseball card stats to a 3.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Entering the preseason I had my doubts as to whether or not his 2012 performance was legit because most of great outings came against sub-.500 ball clubs. For more detailed data about Tillman checkout my Fantasy Guide. However, when talent evaluators such as Keith Law highly praise him it’s hard to overlook him. His biggest problem this season has been the walks; he currently has a walk rate of 10.3 percent. If his strikeout rate was higher (>22 percent) he could get away with walking that many batters, but with only a walk rate of 19 percent he’ll susceptible to bad outings and/or the blowup inning. His next starts are extremely favorable: Royals, Padres and Yankees so there’s better time than ever stream him.
Dan Straily, SP, Athletics, 61% : Straily was the minor league darling last year, leading the minor leagues in strikeouts (190). The stereotypical pitcher I think of when I think of a strikeout pitcher is someone like Nolan Ryan with an 80 grade fastball with electric stuff. That’s not Straily. His stuff isn’t overpowering but he uses plus to plus-plus command of all his four pitches to generate outs. With Brett Anderson on the DL, Straily has a full time job. His biggest problem in his brief Major League career has been home runs; he’s already allowed 13 home runs in 50.2 innings.
Ricky Romero, SP, Blue Jays, 6%: With Josh Johnson heading over to the DL, Romero has been called upon to start tonight. Like most of the public, I haven’t seen him pitch since Spring Training because he was sent to High-A to work on his mechanics. I was big believer in Romero at beginning of the 2012 season and got burned. However, he’s only two years removed from a 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 19.4 strikeout rate. With Johnson on the DL Romero will get an extended look by the Blue Jays, which could open the door to a consistent rotation spot. His next matchups are extremely favorable: @ Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Tampa Bay again.
