I’ve never been a Stanton guy. He has only averaged 130 games played the last three seasons and 120 the last two seasons. In 2012 it was a knee. Last year it was a sore foot / ankle and hamstring. When compared to the injury history of a Jacoby Ellsbury I feel more confident about Ellsbury playing a full year because some of Ellsbury’s injuries were fluky in nature where Stanton’s injuries are from his body breaking down.

He’s only had a batting average above .262 once (in 2012, with an extremely high BABIP of .344). He has never had more than 87 RBIs. After all of that he is still drafted in the third, fourth round, which is too high for me. He only provides one elite level stats in one category (home runs). The batting average will likely be in the .250-.260 range, which is average. I don’t see the batting average improving as he still struggles with breaking pitches from right handers (.228/.299/.481 career slash line). The Marlins second best hitter is Christian Yelich who is also still raw and unproven. Even though he’ll bat in the middle of the order his RBI and run opportunities will be limited because he’ll have Garret Jones and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hitting behind him. Lastly, he doesn’t steal bases. His upside may be five to six supposing he’s healthy, which is a big if. Suppose he plays a full year, he’ll probably hit .255 with 40 home runs with 90 RBI, 70 runs and two steals. That doesn’t add up to a third round pick.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.