With 12-13% of the season already in the books some players have not performed up to their draft day value. The question on the minds of every fantasy owner is will these players improve the rest of the season? The following analysis of each hitter is from the point of view of the owner of the hitter. Before I go on it’s important to note we’re dealing with a small sample size and it’s important to continually monitor the status of each player as the sample size increases. Part one can be found here.
Robinson Cano: Sell
If you drafted Cano at the backend of the first round you have to be a little frustrated he’s not hitting for average or for power. He’s too good of a hitter to have a batting average this low, but if you drafted him thinking he’s going to hit 20-plus home runs I would be worried. I didn’t think he was going to hit 20-plus on draft day because the ground ball rate increased almost ten percentage points from the previous year and how he no longer tried to hit home runs – opting to hit the ball in the gaps. This year he’s not turning on inside fastballs, which is an indicator he’s lost a tick on his bat speed. He’s going to be a .300-plus hitter with 12-16 home runs. If you can find someone who is willing to buy low I would consider dealing him.
Albert Pujols: Keep
Pujols has been dealing with hamstring issues the past couple of days and may not come back until this weekend. Despite the injury Pujols should bounce back into the player he was last year. The biggest reason why I believe this is his extra base hit percentage (37.5 percent) is almost identical to last year (38.3 percent). On top of that the walk, strikeout and contact rates are identical to last year.
Chase Utley: Keep
Utley was the 12th second baseman taken in ESPN drafts, which was too high considering his limited upside and how bad the surrounding talent around him in the lineup. However, if I owned him I wouldn’t worry. If I drafted Utley I was hoping to get at least 10/10 with the upside of 15/15 with a .260-plus batting average. Other than the batting average he’s on pace to provide at least 10/10. The only concerning statistic is the career high ground ball rate, which could be the cause of the low batting average. However, he’s only hitting .231 on fly balls and line drives, which is extremely low – from 2013-14 he hit .462. If he continues to hit the ball on the ground so much his batting average ceiling may be .260 instead of .270-plus the past two seasons.
Adam LaRoche: Sell
The biggest worry I had about LaRoche entering the season was the learning curve he could potential have because he was learning a new league. Maybe that’s why he’s striking out 37.7 percent of the time – by far the highest rate of his career. His contact rates are the lowest of his career. He’s swinging at the same rate (on pitches in and outside the strike zone), but his contact rates are the lowest of career. The most shocking statistic is how much he’s swinging and missing on pitches in the strike zone (13.7 percent SwStr% per FanGraphs). Maybe he’s dealing with vision issues or has lost two ticks on his bat speed, but it looks like he may have a 2013 type of season.
Jayson Heyward: Keep
Even though Heyward has played in the majors the past six seasons its hard to believe he’s only 25 years old (he turns 26 in June) and he has not reached his prime yet. On April 26 it was reported Heyward was dealing with hamstring tightness, which could part of the reason why his BABIP is slow (because he’s not running fast and may not beating out as many infield hits). He’s only hitting .400 on line drives and fly balls, which is nearly 100 points less than the previous three seasons. The batting average will improve.
Carlos Beltran: Sell
I didn’t like the Beltran signing with the Yankees two years ago because of his age and his inability to play defense. With Alex Rodriguez looking like the best hitter on the team means he’s going to be the every day DH. Therefore I expect Beltran to eventually start sitting against lefties, which already dramatically lower his value. What’s most concerning is how much he’s swinging and missing on fastballs. Since we’re dealing with a small sample I don’t want to say his bat speed has dropped a tick or two, but those numbers have me worried.
Marlon Byrd: Keep
Entering the season I thought last year’s 25 home runs and .264 batting average were unsustainable. In regards to the batting average he struck out 29 percent of the time and had a .341 BABIP last year. This year he’s striking out 31.3 percent of the time and his BABIP is only .216. In regards to the power I never bought the 25 considering how low his hard hit rate was and his age. The BABIP should improve, but even if positively regresses to .295 he’s only going to be a .240 hitter with 20 home runs.
Jimmy Rollins: Sell
When you draft a player a player like Rollins who is closer to 40 than 30 you have to be willing to accept a reduction in the players floor. The contact rate is the lowest of his career and the swing and miss rate on pitches in the strike zone is the highest of his career, which are concerning. Most importantly, it looks as though Joc Pederson (I said a couple of days ago Pederson should be leading off) may become the leadoff hitter, which if it continues dramatically lowers Rollins fantasy value. He’s attempted five stolen bases and has been caught twice, which is also concerning. Rollins should hit 12 home runs with 17-22 stolen bases, but it may come with a .220-.230 batting average with only 60-70 runs.
