For the month of December Bryce Harper has an ADP of 188.78 amongst hitters in NFBC. That ADP seems to be too risk averse for one of the best fantasy players in the game. Harper underwent a in late November.

Typically a pitcher will miss about 12-18 months to recover. However, position players can return much quicker. For example, Shohei Ohtani had the surgery in October of 2018 and was serving as the Angels’ designated hitter by early May of 2019. Didi Gregorius also had the surgery in October of 2018 and was playing shortstop by June of 2019, eight months later. Therefore, the base rate I will use is Harper is back by late May-early June.

Below is my projection for Harper if he played a full season:

Player	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
Bryce Harper	500	.289	37	100	90	11

Suppose I wanted to be pessimistic and project Harper doesn’t come back to July 1, which is roughly the midway point of the season. That means I would get half of the projections. How do I evaluate Harper’s value if I only got half a season of him?

I think the best rough estimate is to combine Harper’s half year projections with a replacement level player. Charlie Blackmon is my 56^th rated outfielder and below is my projection.

Player	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
Charlie Blackmon	530	.262	14	70	62	4

Suppose I took a half season of Blackmon and a half season of Harper. What would those combined numbers look like (table below)?

AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
515	.275	25.5	85	76	7.5

I think the stolen bases may be a little too high considering the Phillies will be extra careful with Harper and will mandate that he not steal bases. However, he did steal a bag in the post season and two bases (out of four attempts) in the last two months of the regular season. I think it’s reasonable to project 3-6 stolen bases in a half season.

The combined total of Blackmon and Harper ranks as my 17^th rated outfielder; just at the same level as George Springer (his projection below). Springer is going as the 50^th hitter overall, which means the fantasy baseball community is severely discounting Harper’s value.

Player	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
George Springer	510	.267	24.5	89	80	7

I acknowledge in the NFBC format, having one less bench spot is a big pain especially with shorter IL stints leading to players missing missing time and thus requiring backups on the bench. However, at Harper’s current price I think fantasy owners are getting more than compensated for the risk they are taking.