Let’s first begin with how Harper’s final statistics looked at the end the year. The batting average, OBP, slugging and isolated power were all higher than last year. He reduced his strikeout rate a little more than one percentage point while he increased his walk rate three percentage points. Lastly he achieved all of this at the age of 20, which is scary because even the highest the best prospects are likely only in double-a at that age.

Now, any fantasy discussion has to talk about that night he ran into the wall at Dodger Stadium on May 13. The table below breaks down his performance before and after the injury.

Based on the data it’s obvious the injury plagued him for the rest of the season. At the end of the season he had surgery on at the end of October. The early chatter in the fantasy community suggests he could be a top ten fantasy player because his upside is so high. For Harper to be a top ten player he needs to have to have elite level production in at least three, preferably four statistical categories. By now we all know his raw power is immense and is capable of hitting 40-plus. If he’s going to make strides in the batting average he needs to improve upon his .229/.312/.376 slash line against lefties, specifically stop rolling over on offspeed pitches. Last year his stolen base output decreased by 38 percent (from 18 to 11). It’s possible the left knee hindered his ability to steal even more bases. When healthy he is a 60 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but he is unlikely to hold that speed as he ages (that’s not a concern for the next two, three years). Currently Harper has an ADP of 14, which seems about right considering his upside. Or the ADP could be too high considering he hasn’t actualized that upside into on the field results. I understand both sides of the argument, but are you taking Prince Fielder over Harper? Hanley Ramirez? Evan Longoria? Those three players are all being taken next to Harper and I rather take Harper.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.