If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
Despite having stellar numbers the past two seasons Chris Sale’s ADP was suppressed in 2014 primarily due to injury concerns. The reason for those concerns are because he has a violent deliver, he throws a lot of sliders (this pitch puts more strain on the elbow) and who slight his body is. After two injury free seasons (he had shoulder inflammation in 2013 but never went on the DL), Sale went on the DL for the first time in his career with a flexor muscle strain in his left elbow. Also, this was the first time he has ever experienced elbow issues. He ended up spending 34 days on the DL, missing 32 games. When he came back from the DL he was fantastic, putting up a 2.15 ERA, 0.99 WHIP with 30.8% strikeout rate.
Not only did he put up fantastic numbers, the strikeout rate was the highest of his career as a starting pitcher. The increased strikeout rate came against both lefties and righties. The major adjustment he made was he started using the changeup more (image below from BrooksBaseball.net).
Last year the changeup had 29% strikeout rate compared to a 17% strikeout rate the previous two years. I believe the new strikeout rate with the changeup is repeatable because was throwing that pitch down in the zone more often (from 47.5% to 55.4%). The reason why that’s important is that pitch is at its best when thrown down in the zone.
He got a little lucky with the HR/FB rate because last year was it was three percentage points less than his career rate (7.5% and 10.6% respectively). The fly ball rate increased nine percentage points from last year (32.0% to 40.9% respectively), but since his contact rate was so low he would have allowed the name number of fly balls as 2013. Therefore, he can continue to have a low contact rate he will not allow more home runs if the HR/FB were to regress.
Overall, the big question, once again, with Sale is going to be health. The fact he went on the DL last year should provide enough fear that he should slip in drafts, which could make him a value. The White Sox should have an improved offense, which could help him win more games but my biggest question is will the bullpen hold leads for him? I have doubts about the White Sox bullpen. The signing of David Robertson definitely helps, but whose going to hold leads to get to Robertson? The bullpen is full of unproven guys without much of a track record.
My 2015 projection for Sale is 190 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 215 Ks and 13 wins.
