If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
Last year Collin McHugh literally came out of nowhere and one was of the best starting pitchers in baseball. For example he was and/or had the (all stats are for pitchers with at least 25 starts last year):
- 6th lowest WHIP
- 16th lowest ERA
- 9th best strikeout rate
- 8th best swing and mix percentage on pitches in the strike zone
Generally speaking what happened last year was he got better. Sometimes players can inexplicably “get it” without any warning or indication. The greatest personification of this was Cliff Lee. He was literally below average for the first six seasons in the majors before the light turned on and became an ace. I’m not indicating McHugh is going to be an ace, but what I am saying is it’s possible for players to get dramatically better.
What I love about McHugh is he can throw 3-4 pitches for strikes consistently against both sides of the plate. On top of that he throws those pitches at the same arm slot, which allows each pitch to play-up, which delays the hitters ability to know what pitch is coming; hence the 8th best swing and miss percentage on pitches in the strike zone. To put that number into perspective some of the the guys ahead of him are: Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels and Max Scherzer. Lastly, his fastball velocity ticked up almost two mph since 2012. Doug Thorburn wrote an amazing piece about why he also believes in McHugh as well.
It’s easy to look at the low BABIP and high strand rate and say he’s going to regress, but I do not believe that is going to happen. McHugh has the best shot to be this year’s Corey Kluber. The Astros are not going to be a bad team next year. They signed two very good relievers and they offense is going to have a lot of right handed power. If things break right McHugh could find himself with 15-plus wins next year.
My 2015 projection for McHugh is 190 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 190 Ks and 14 wins.
