If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

For the past three years I’ve been saying David Ortiz is going to eventually decline and even if he doesn’t decline there is no upside and a lot of downside. Obviously I’ve been way wrong, but after a down 2014 I’m jumping on the positive regression bandwagon for Ortiz for 2015.

Last year he had the lowest batting average and BABIP of his Red Sox career (.263 and .256 respectively). Other than age concerns the first thought I had was he lost a lot of hits due to the shift. The table below shows his batting average on balls hit to the right, left and center part of the field since 2008. (These numbers exclude strikeouts, which is why the batting averages are higher than usual).

The numbers tell us that balls hit up the middle is the reason why his batting average was so low last year. It’s possible the shift contributed to the low batting average but if that’s true then why did he have an all-time high in batting average on balls hit to right field? I don’t know the answer, but I’m assuming the batting average positively regresses.

The 35 home runs are going to regress, but I don’t see a major regression occurring. His extra base hit percentage is almost identical to the past three seasons. I wouldn’t draft him expecting 35 home runs, but 25-30 is very reasonable.

I’m projecting 520 ABs, .290 AVG, 27 HRs, 105 RBI, 75 R and 0 SB.