If you’re playing in DFS on Monday you’re probably going to use either (or both) Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez (for the record, Kershaw is my number one pitcher). If you don’t use both pitchers you’re most likely going to win or lose, because of the short slate, on your second pitcher performs. Below are my starting pitcher rankings. Also, all my analysis in regards to team based statistics are the same handedness of the pitcher.
Michael Pineda
This past Wednesday I wrote I was hesitant to use Pineda because after a stellar start to the year he was very average. He pitched great against the Marlins that night, but I still have reservations if he will continue to improve upon his last start. However, he’s facing the Phillies and even if he’s only 75 percent of his true talent level he should do well. If you’re playing in a GPP at DraftKings I bet the majority owners will go with Pineda and either Kershaw or Hernandez so you may want to use another pitcher.
Hector Santiago
I’ve been hesitant to recommend Santiago because of the high walk rate, but in his last eight starts he only has 12 walks (6.2 percent walk rate). The Astros’ best hitters are righties, which implies they should mash lefties, but for the year they only have the tenth best hard hit rate against southpaws. Santiago is a fly ball pitcher and he’s pitching at home. The Astros have the seventh highest strikeout rate against lefties so if he can limit the amount of hard hit contact he should do well.
Drew Hutchison
In regards to upside, Hutchison’s upside is as high as any pitcher starting on Monday. I was extremely high on him entering the season, but after watching him struggle in most of his starts I’m backing off. The biggest reason why he’s struggled has been due to bad fastball command to righties. He was very successful last year throwing the fastball up in the zone, but this year when the catcher wants the fastball up he’s leaving it in the middle of the strike zone. What has me the most concerned is his plan of attack is always the same to righties: get ahead in the count with the fastball then throw sliders down and away.
The Rays are below average offense against righties (in both wOBA and hard hit rate). They also have the seventh highest strikeout rate and have the ninth worst in-play rate, which means they won’t put a lot of balls in-play and will strikeout a lot. The reason why I rated Hutchison ahead of Tommy Milone is because the true talent level discrepancy is wide.
Tommy Milone
Milone is a getting a lot of love in the fantasy community as a sneaky streaming option. Milone is pitching at home, which suits his talent level (i.e. he pitches to contact with well below average stuff and hopes the ballpark will suppress fly balls). Also, the White Sox have the lowest wOBA against lefties for the year. In fact its 42 points less than the next team. They also have the lowest hard hit rate (by 34 points) against lefties too. Milone doesn’t have good stuff so you’re playing with fire, but if there was ever a chance to use him and feel good about it it’s this matchup.
Trevor Bauer
At first glance I thought Bauer would be my number option because on a pure talent level he’s the best pitcher. The Tigers matchup is obviously not a good one, but it’s not as a bad as you may think. For the year, they’re only 11th in wOBA and tenth in hard hit average. Part of the reason why the numbers could be suppressed was due to Victor Martinez hitting fourth for half of the season. Bauer’s stuff is good enough he could strikeout 10-plus, but since he walks so many hitters he’s going to be flirting with trouble the entire game.
Tsuyoshi Wada
In six starts Wada has been incredibly inconsistent regardless of the matchup. In his 2015 Wada struck out nine in 4.2 innings, but since then he hasn’t had more than six strikeouts. One reason why the strikeout totals have been down was due his low pitch counts, but in his last start he threw 107 pitches in seven innings. The Dodgers have the sixth highest hard hit average against lefties and since Wada walks too many hitter’s means I’m looking elsewhere.
Matt Andriese
Since Andriese is a ground baller he has a puncher’s chance to pitch well, but his hard hit rate would put him in the bottom 15 percent among starting pitchers (small sample caveat). If he wasn’t facing the Blue Jays I could be convinced he’s worth a start on a short slate, but the Blue Jays have the best offense in baseball.
