Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.
The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. With so many top tier pitchers going it may be more advantageous to play a double-up than a GPP because it’s going to be difficult to gain a competitive edge with starting pitchers. However, if you’re contrarian and select two low priced pitchers and they provide 16-20 points each you will have a great opportunity to do well.
Tier I: The Aces
Noah Syndagaard: $8,100 – CIN
The ERA and WHIP indicate Syndagaard has been very hittable, but hart hit rate is 11.8 percent, which would be the fifth lowest among qualified starting pitchers. Combine that statistic with his .362 BABIP means he’s been extremely unlucky and he should have a much better ERA and WHIP. He’s still young and is not as predictable as other pitchers in this category, but he’s the best value on Friday.
Francisco Liriano: $10,000 – ATL
Liriano has a great matchup, which is even better with Freddie Freeman on the DL. Against lefties the Braves the fourth lowest hard hit rate and are next to last in wOBA. The biggest reason why I’m weary about using Liriano is because he’s less consistent. Three times (out of 14 starts) this year he’s given up five runs or more. Jake Arrieta has not given up more than four runs all year. Liriano has the second lowest hard hit rate among qualified starting pitchers and the 12th best ground ball rate. He’s my number two pitcher because of the price point, strikeout potential, matchup and upside. If I was playing in a one pitcher format Liriano would be my number one pitcher.
Jake Arrieta: $9,800 – @STL
Despite having some injuries the Cardinals offense has not sputtered. In the past month, against righties, they are 11th in hard hit rate and seventh in wOBA. The biggest reason why Arrieta is my number two pitcher is because he leads all qualified starting pitchers in hard hit rate (8.9 percent). The next best is Francisco Liriano 11 percent. The Cubs will allow Arrieta to throw deep into the game (he’s averaging 103 pitches per start), which gives him an advantage over other pitchers. The Cardinals matchup is an average one, but he’s still my number three pitcher because he’s been more consistent. He does have less upside than Corey Kluber and Francisco Liriano though, which means in he’s a better play in a double-up format.
Corey Kluber: $10,300 – @BAL
In Kluber’s last five starts he’s been very ordinary, posting a 3.97 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 24.6 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate. I’ve watched his starts and his problem has been the sinker. He’s been leaving it in the middle of the zone and hitters have been making a ton of hard contact, hitting the ball with authority for line drives. If I can see this I bet the Indians coaching staff has noticed this too and Kluber is probably working on it.
The Orioles, against righties, are tenth in the majors in wOBA and fourth in hard hit rate so if you roster Kluber you’re absorbing a lot of downside if he hasn’t fixed the command of the sinker. However, if he has improved the command he could be provide the most points of any starting pitcher.
Tyson Ross: $9,100 – ARI
I’ve written about Ross extensively this year for DFS and he’s a high variance pitcher. Since his command is extremely loose you have no idea how well he’s going to perform from start to start. Even with a high walk rate he’s been able to be relatively successful because the extremely high ground ball rate and high strikeout rate.
The Diamondbacks, against righties, have the third highest ground ball rate, 15th in wOBA, are 13th in hard hit rate and 15th in strikeout rate. Those are numbers may not be as relevant after Mark Trumbo was traded (you could also argue the opposite with the acquisition of Wellington Castillo).
Ross dominated (and had his best start of the year) the Diamondbacks six days ago so it’s very possible he does it again. You may be worried hitters have an advantage facing a pitcher twice in a short time frame, but that’s not the case.
Max Scherzer: $14,000 – @PHI
Scherzer has been the best pitcher in baseball this year and he gets a cake matchup against the Phillies. However, at his price point I have to pass. In order to even break even he needs to score 30-33 points, which is extremely difficult to do. If he doesn’t provide those points you’re at a net loss. The odds of him being very successful are high so he could be useful if you paired him with a cheap pitcher like Chad Bettis.
Johnny Cueto: $10,600 – @NYM
Earlier this week Cueto was skipped so he could extra rest. There are rumblings it was to rest his elbow, which is something a fantasy owner wants to hear. My biggest concern will he be able to finish the game? Since there are so many proven commodities starting today means I’m staying away despite a great matchup.
Tier II: Value Picks
Chad Bettis: $5,900 – @SF
A little more than a week ago I loved Bettis as a streaming and cheap DFS option against the Astros. Obviously that call blew up in my face, but he was very solid in his next outing. On the surface Bettis seems a fairly safe bet to provide 14-18 points because he’s provided at least five strikeouts in his last seven starts.
There are two major concerns I have. First, the Giants do not strikeout a lot; they have the fifth lowest in the majors. Second, he doesn’t pitch deep into games; he’s only averaging 5.2 innings per start. The Giants are the sixth lowest in pitchers per plate appearance so it’s possible he may be able to pitch deeper into the game.
With Nori Aoki out indefinitely the Giants lineup will take a big hit because they’re likely to use Gregor Blanco, which is a big downgrade. He doesn’t have the upside for 22-plus points, but he could be a safe for 15-19 points.
John Lackey: $7,800 – CHC
In regards to DraftKings scoring I don’t see much a difference in output between Lackey and Chad Bettis. I think they’re both relatively a safe bet for 15-19 points. However, they’ll achieve their points in different ways. Lackey will go deep into the game and get many strikeouts while it’s the opposite for Bettis. I give Bettis the edge not only because of price point, but also due to his higher ceiling. Lackey is obviously safer and has a longer track record, but the ROI isn’t there.
Nate Eovaldi: $5,300 – @HOU
I love Eovaldi at this price point for several reasons. First, the Astros strikeout a lot. Second, the game is in Houston and not New York. Third, the lineup can be very righty heavy, which is great because Eovaldi cannot get lefties out.
What’s troubling about Eovadli is he’s allowing the hardest contact of his career and even though the Astros strikeout a lot, when they make contact it’s very hard (tenth in the majors in hard hit rate against righties). In the past two seasons he’s only had nine or more strikeouts twice so he is a hail mary option, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he has a break out.
Anibal Sanchez: $8,700 – CWS
In Sanchez’s last eight starts he has a 23.4 percent strikeout rate, 6.9 percent walk rate, 1.109 WHIP and 3.93 ERA. With a WHIP that low he’s been unlucky with the BABIP and/or strand rate.
Some fantasy owners are going to use Sanchez because he’s facing the White Sox, one the lowest scoring teams in the majors. In the past month they’re dead last in wOBA and hard hit rate. However, in the past month their BABIP (.270) is the lowest in majors and it is not a direct result of the low hard hit rate. The A’s have the next lowest hard hit rate and their BABIP is .327. The White Sox is not good, but they’re not an auto start offense (from a pitchers perspective).
Mark Buehrle: $6,500 – TEX
In the past month the Rangers are last in wOBA and hard hit rate against lefties. With Adrian Beltre back in the lineup those numbers do not carry as much weight as they used to. If the Rangers feature a lefty heavy lineup Buehrle could have a really good night.
Wei-Yin Chen: $8,300 – CLE
When I first saw the price point I was shocked that it was as high as it was. However, the more I thought about it, the more I found the price defensible. Obviously he’s been lucky this year with the strand rate and BABIP (he has a FIP of 3.93), but I believe the low BABIP is maintainable. His hard hit and soft hit rates are at career highs.
However, I’m still buying Chen at his price point because the Indians are actually a good hitting team against lefties. They have the third highest hart hit average and have the seventh highest wOBA in the majors against lefties.
Jose Quintana: $7,400 – @DET
I wrote about Quintana a couple of weeks ago when he was facing the Tigers. I didn’t like the matchup then and I still do not like it. If you’re in a double-up format he could be useful because he’s moderately safe bet for 10-17 points.
Jesse Hahn: $6,600 – KC
In Hahn’s last eight starts he has a 2.58 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, 15.3 percent strikeout rate and 6.9 percent walk rate. Like mentioned a week ago, I’m not using Hahn because doesn’t have any upside in regards to strikeouts. Also, he’s facing a team with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
