Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. My approach to ranking pitchers is broken into three parts. *when I wrote this the Nationals, Giants and Red Sox did not name their starting pitcher for Friday.

1. How good is the pitcher? This may sound overly simplistic but I’ll never use a pitcher unless I believe he has a high likelihood he can get outs consistently. I use three statistics primarily to evaluate a pitcher: strikeout rate, hard hit rate and hit distribution (ground balls and fly balls). Strikeouts are not the end all, be all because there are different expectations based on the pitchers salary. Strikeouts are very important, but they need to evaluated and rooted in the second part.
2. What is the pitcher’s salary? There different point expectation levels for each salary range. A pitcher with five digits implies he is going to provide 27-plus points (usually with a lot of strikeouts) and the likelihood of that are high. A pitcher below $7,000 means expectations should be lowered. Therefore, expect 10-14 points with the expectation he could score in the single digits. When evaluating a pitcher below $7,000 I’m looking for a quality start with moderate strikeouts (4-5) over 6-plus innings. The reason why is these pitchers may not have the ceiling as the pricier pitchers, but they may the higher ROI potential. By that I mean, if a $6,500 pitcher provides 19 points that’s better than a $11,000 pitcher providing 27 points because the ROI (return on investment) is better. Or in other words, you’re making more points per dollar spent.
3. Who is the pitcher playing and where is the game? Everyone uses Coors as an example as a place where to not choose a pitcher, but let’s take it a little further. Obviously you don’t want a pitcher pitching in Coors, but what about a fly ball pitcher in Milwaukee? I’m not using a fly ball pitcher in that ballpark because the likelihood of home run is higher than in another ballpark like Oakland or Minnesota. The initial team statistics I look at is wOBA and hard hit rate against the handedness pitcher. These statistics quickly provide insight into how effective the offense is. It’s very important to take these statistics into context because players may have been injured and come back into the lineup. The next team statistic is strikeout and hit distribution against the handedness pitcher. For example, if a team hits a lot of ground balls, the pitcher generates a lot of ground balls and is only priced $6,500 odds are I’m going to use him.

Pitcher Rankings

Noah Syndagaard: $9,300 – @STL

I’ve been saying for a few weeks Syndagaard has been underpriced and now the salary jumps, but he’s still underpriced. His hard hit rate is 11 percent, which is the second lowest among qualified starting pitchers. The strikeout rate is tenth best and the walk rate is the 21^st best. The offense probably won’t score many runs, but you’re getting a quality start with a strikeout per inning.

Sonny Gray: $9,600 – MIN

Other than Clayton Kershaw, Gray may be the safest pitcher. By that mean, the odds of him providing 17-20 points is extremely high.

Clayton Kershaw: $13,600 – @WSH

Quick question: who is the Nationals second best hitter currently on the 25 man roster? Yunel Escobar? Danny Espinosa? My initial impression of Kershaw’s salary was it was too high, but in fact it could be priced just right. If you remove the first two games of the year he has a 2.52 ERA, 0.949 WHIP with a 33.6 percent strikeout rate and 5.1 percent walk rate. At his price point he’s better cash game play, but he should be almost a lock to a 27-plus point performance. However, at his price point he needs to score in the 30s.

Jose Fernandez: $10,200 – PHI

Fernandez has been great in first two starts back, but like with Matt Harvey there is going to be inconsistency. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fernandez puts up the most points, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies light him up like they did to Michael Pineda.

Drew Hutchison: $6,700 – TB

I wrote a full write-up on Hutchison here. If he’s ever going to be startable in a GPP then this is the matchup. The Rays have the fourth lowest hard hit average and fifth lowest wOBA. What’s funny is Hutchison has actually been better against lefties than righties this year, which has been due the lack of effectiveness of the slider. Since 2014 he’s been a much better pitcher at home than on the road: 3.63 ERA and 1.162 WHIP at home compared to 5.63 ERA and 1.475 WHIP on the road.

Lance Lynn: $9,200 – NYM

Even though he’s had four starts from coming off the DL with forearm tightness, I’m still worried he may not finish the game. At this point in the year most starting pitchers are not 100 percent, but it’s something I cannot ignore with Lynn. He currently has a 1.287 WHIP and 2.90 ERA. The WHIP tells me he’s been lucky with the ERA. I’m concerned about the fly ball tendencies and the fact the Mets have the fifth highest fly ball rate against righties. Even though the Mets offense is below average there’s a good chance Lynn allows a home run.

Trevor Bauer: $8,500 – @CIN

Against righties, the Reds have the third lowest hard hit rate and the 16^th best wOBA. They also have the sixth lowest strikeout rate and 12^th best walk rate. At any time Bauer could score the most points of any pitcher, but based on the Reds team statistics the upside for Bauer is limited.

Ubaldo Jimenez: $7,600 – DET

Despite the narrative being bandied about in the media, Jimenez has actually improved his command and he has the lowest walk rate of his career (7.7 percent). The walk rate still puts him in the bottom 25 percent among qualified starting pitchers, but since his strikeout rate is in the top 25 percent (23.4 percent) and the ground ball rate is average Jimenez has value. This is an example where looking at the team statistics is futile because Miguel Cabrera is out and he’s been replaced with a below average player. The best Tigers hitters don’t have major platoon splits so this game is going to be a tossup.

Collin McHugh: $7,700 – TEX

My initial impression of McHugh was he would be an easy pass because the Rangers are very left handed and therefore, mash righties. However, McHugh has been better against lefties than righties; .275 wOBA compared to .295 respectively. Since the blowup start against the Mariners on June 13, he has been very good: 3.15 ERA, 1.107 WHIP with a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. Despite all the numbers McHugh is only a roto play at this point. If he was priced the $6,000s I would take a shot in a GPP.

Robbie Ray: $5,900 – SF

Ray could be nice value because the Giants lineup could have as many as four lefties in the lineup. Ray does very well against lefties, but he allows a lot of hard contact against righties. Depending on the lineup I would stack the Giants righties against Ray. If the Giants have four lefties in the lineup Ray may be worth a gamble in a GPP format.

Anibal Sanchez: $8,200 – BAL

Sanchez has similar strikeout and walk rate numbers as Ubaldo Jimenez. He also has just as good of a chance of winning the ballgame too. The Tigers offense may be marginally better than the Orioles, but the Orioles bullpen is better. Therefore, Sanchez is overpriced.

James Shields: $9,100 – COL

Shields has a 4.01 ERA pitching in one of the best pitcher ballparks in the majors and one of the divisions for pitching. A big part of that is the 17.9 percent HR/FB rate, but if you watch him pitch this isn’t the same guy as a year or two ago. The Rockies’ offense struggles on the road, but he’s given up four or more runs in six of his 19 starts; also, he’s given up 1 or less earned runs only five times. Sonny Gray has given up four or more earned runs twice and has allowed 1 or less runs ten times (out of 18 starts) … and he’s done that pitching in the AL. Therefore, he’s highly unpredictable and is priced too high.

Jake Odorizzi: $8,700 – @TOR

Odorizzi is a start in roto formats, but for DFS. He’s a fly ball pitcher, pitching in one of the best home run ballparks in the majors.

Mike Montgomery: $6,400 – @NYY

I wrote an extensive write-up on Montgomery here. Needless to say I’m not a believer in the talent level. Specifically, he’s a real life number five starting pitcher on a below average team. His best role would be in relief as lefty specialist.