I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.
I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.
My Strategy
To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.
With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.
Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.
Last Note
This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.
My 50/50 Double Up Lineup
- P: Collin McHugh (HOU) vs. J. Sheilds (SD) — $8,700
- P: Jimmy Nelson (MIL) vs. J. Marquis (CIN) — $6,900
- C: A. J. Pierzynski (ATL) vs. D. Fister (WSH) — $3,100
- 1B: Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) vs. T. Matzek (COL) — $5,700
- 2B: Dee Gordon (MIA) vs. D. Gee (NYM) — $4,400
- 3B: Miguel Cabrera (DET) vs. T. Milone (MIN) — $5,100
- SS: Hidden
- OF: Jayson Werth (WSH) vs. E. Stults (ATL) — $4,300
- OF: Hidden
- OF: Hidden
I was debating between Jimmy Nelson and Jason Hammel. I gave the edge to Nelson because of he’s facing a weaker lineup, is facing the weaker opponent in Jason Marquis (and yes, I’m not buying the current strikeout rate), the higher ground ball and strikeout rates. I have money left over from my lineup so money didn’t factor into my decision. A big reason for the spike in the strikeout rate has been the curveball; the swing and miss rate has been extremely high, which leads me to believe he can sustain the strikeout rate. As for Collin McHugh, I’m going to pretty much use him any time he costs less than $9,000 (except for a Colorado start).
I’m not a fan of A. J. Pierzynski as a person, but he’s batting cleanup today and his cost is too good to pass up. Dee Gordon cannot keep up his current pace, but if he gets on base he’s going to steal a base because Kevin Plawecki is not a good defender. Jayson Werth hasn’t been hitting lately, but since 2011 he has a .918 OPS against lefties and today he gets to the face the soft tossing Eric Stults.
