I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.
I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.
My Strategy
To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.
With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.
Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.
Last Note
This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.
My 50/50 Lineup
- P: Max Scherzer (WSH) vs. J. Collmenter () — $11,500
- P: Gerrit Cole (PIT) vs. J. Williams (PHI) — $8,900
- C: Rene Rivera (TB) vs. CC Sabathia (NYY) — $2,800
- 1B: Michael Cuddyer (NYM) vs. J. Lester (CHC) — $3,700
- 2B: Logan Forsythe (TB) vs. CC Sabathia (NYY) — $2,800
- 3B: Evan Longoria (TB) vs. CC Sabathia (NYY)— $4,200
- SS: Hidden
- OF: Andrew McCutchen (PIT) vs. J. Williams (PHI) — $5,300
- OF: Hidden
- OF: Hidden
A lot of people are picking Zack Greinke as their number one pitcher tonight, but I’m not entirely sold. Greinke is probably the best play tonight, but not at the price point. For me, Gerrit Cole is my number one option because he costs $1,300 less, is facing the worst team in the majors in wOBA (against righties) and is striking out batters at a higher clip. Choosing between Max Scherzer and Greinke is a tough decision, but the Diamondbacks are actually 11th in the majors in wOBA against righties and the game is being played in Arizona. I’m looking at the Diamondbacks lineup and David Peralta is batting fourth. Scherzer should be able to dominate this lineup.
With all the talk about Bartolo Colon not walking anyone, guess who also is not walking anyone? Scherzer. He only has five walks this year. The Red Sox are 24th in the majors in wOBA, which makes Scott Kazmir and interesting play. If you roll with Kazmir it depends on if you believe in the first five starts of the year where he was fabulous or if his blow up started against the Twins – his last start – regressed his total numbers to his true talent level. I’m not going with Kazmir because the A’s bullpen is so bad that even if he has a lead the bullpen is going to blow it for him.
I didn’t want my lineup to pseudo Rays stack, but I couldn’t help it. Steven Souza and Evan Longoria mash lefties and the fact Logan Forsythe is batting right after them in the four hole was too good to pass up especially at that price point. It was a tough decision between Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera because both make hard contact against lefties, but I went with Revera because he has a longer track record of success and is facing the lesser pitcher. Andrew McCutchen is among the leaders in well-hit contact the past 10-14 days and now he faces Jerome Williams in a great hitters park. Since 2008 Michael Cuddyer has a .295/.385/.544 slash line with a 19.0 percent HR/FB rate against lefties. Even if you look at the last two years of data he’s still mashing lefties.
