I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.
I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.
My Strategy
To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.
With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.
Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.
Last Note
This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.
My 50/50 Double Up Lineup
- P: Collin McHugh (HOU) vs. T. Walker (SEA) — $8,100
- P: Nate Eovaldi (NYY) vs. K. Lobstein (DET) — $6,100
- C: Buster Posey (SF) vs. B. Anderson (LAD) — $4,100
- 1B: Lucas Duda (NYM) vs. T. Cahill (ATL) — $3,600
- 2B: Brian Dozier (MIN) vs. J. Vargas (KC) — $4,700
- 3B: David Freese (LAA) vs. D. Pomeranz (LAA) — $4,300
- SS: Hidden
- OF: Charlie Blackmon (COL) vs. Brandon Morrow (SD) — $4,500
- OF: Hidden
- OF: Hidden
The Mariners offense has been on fire of late, but I was a big believer in Collin McHugh heading into the season and I’m still buying him at the pitcher friendly Safeco Field. Also, he’s opposed by the combustible Taijuan Walker so his chances for a win are higher. I’m going out on a limb with Nate Eovaldi, but he’s always been able to neutralize righties and the Tigers lineup is mostly righties. Another pitcher I liked was Fransico Liriano; he pitched extremely well against them last year and the Cubs lead the majors in strikeout rate at 24 percent (they’re tied with the Astros).
David Freese is a career.317/.382/.487 hitter against lefties and he should be batting fourth or fifth against Drew Pomeranz. As I write this the Angels lineup isn’t posted yet. If the lineup isn’t posted I’m going with Josh Harrison at third base. Brian Dozier and the Twins offense has not performed well early in the season, but when an offense is struggling it doesn’t hurt to face a fringe average starting pitcher in Jason Vargas. Charlie Blackmon is a career .336/.386/.506 hitter at home. Brandon Morrow has looked pretty good, but he has a 35 percent line drive rate, which bodes well for Rockies hitters. I went with Lucas Duda because he’s batting third and the Mets should score some runs because Trevor Cahill isn’t very good.
