Below you’ll find my DraftKings and streamer rankings for Monday, June 1. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the salary and where the game is being played.
Must Starts
Felix Hernandez: $11,600, NYY
Hernandez is the best pitcher on Monday, but I’m not entirely convinced he should be picked because of how many good pitchers are pitching. Hernandez obviously provides stability and safety, but his salary is nearly $2,000more than deGrom, my second ranked pitcher. The Yankees don’t strikeout out a lot against righties (19.5 percent) so there isn’t as much upside as you may think with this matchup.
Jacob deGrom: $9,700, @SD & Gerrit Cole: $9,900, @SF
The Padres are tied for the league lead in home runs allowed, which is strange considering of how much of a pitchers park they play in. I give Jacob deGrom the slight edge over Gerrit Cole because the Padres strikeout much more than the Giants do. Against righties the Padres are striking out 21.5 percent of the time compared 17.5 percent for the Giants. The downside with deGrom is you may only 2-3 strikeouts (he’s done this twice this year) while with Cole you can bank at least five strikeouts. Lastly, the Giants offense has been better against right handed pitching as the Giants have a .321 wOBA while the Padres are .291.
Almost Must Starts
Jason Hammel: $7,800, @MIA
Hammel may be the best value of the day. For the year he only has seven walks to go along with 58 strikeouts. He’s facing a Marlins offense that’s 27th in the majors in wOBA against righties and in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. In nine starts this year he’s had less than five strikeouts once, which means he should be a shoe-in for at least 20-25 points.
Michael Pineda: $8,800, @SEA
The reason why Pineda is not in the Must Start class is because of a limited track record and he’s allowed four and five earned runs in two of his past three starts. A part of the reason why he allowed so many runs was in-part due to a .339 BABIP in those three starts. Of the pitchers in this class I like Pineda almost as much as Jason Hammel because of the underlying peripherals (walk and strikeout rates), the ballpark and the mediocrity of the Mariners lineup. Hammel gets the edge because he’s pitching in the NL.
Garrett Richards: $9,500, TB
Richards has pitched very well this season, but he hasn’t been as good as last season. The strikeout rate is more than four percentage points less and the walk rate is more than two percentage points higher. Despite the lack of household names the Rays offense has been slightly below average in wOBA for the season (18th for the season). My hunch is those numbers are inflated by the poor pitching of the AL East because when I look at the Rays lineup I have to think Richards should be able to overpower the entire lineup except for Evan Longoria.
Andrew Cashner: $8,000, NYM
Since 2013 Cashner has made 55 starts and he’s only had 10 or more strikeouts only twice; 9 or more strikeouts three times. Therefore, the odds of him putting up a 40 point game are low. However, the Mets have the third lowest wOBA in the majors against righties. What’s also concerning is he’s allowed nine home runs already, which is two more than all of last season. Since he’s facing Jacob deGrom the odds of him earning a win are much less.
Safe, Steady & Limited Upside
Jordan Zimmerman: $8,600, TOR
Zimmerman has a 16.3 percent strikeout rate, which is the lowest it’s been since 2011. Also, the 5.6 percent walk rate is the highest it’s been since 2011. I haven’t watched all of his starts, but he hasn’t looked very good this year. The max fastball velocity is two mph down from two years ago and he’s allowed a lot of hard contact. The Blue Jays are likely to be without Jose Bautista because of the sore shoulder, which is another reason I put him in this class. If I knew the Blue Jays were going to start all of their best hitters I would put him in the No Thanks, But I’ll Pass class.
High Risk, High Reward
Alex Colome: $5,800, @LAA
Colome has pitched better than his ERA would indicate. He doesn’t walk batters, has good raw stuff to miss bats and generates a little better than average ground ball rate. The Angels offense without Mike Trout is very below average.
Mike Pelfrey: $4,600, @BOS
You may be scoffing at the idea of even mentioning Pelfrey, but he’s pitched well enough to at least get a mention. His strand rate and BABIP are both going to regress and he’s not striking out a lot of batters (only 11.9 percent). Maybe he’s not striking out a lot of batters, but he’s getting a lot of swings and misses? Of the 109 qualified starting pitchers he ranks 105 in swing and miss rate. So far he looks like a major regression candidate, but he has the 22nd lowest (or best) hard-hit rate among the same pitchers and has the seventh highest ground ball rate. One of the reasons why he’s performing so well has been due to the improvement of the split-changeup. A pitcher with this type of profile can be subject to a blow-up start, but at his price point if he even scores 20 points he would provide a profit.
Clay Buchholz: $7,000, MIN
In Buchholz’s last four starts he’s quietly posted a 2.48 ERA, 0.966 WHIP with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate and 5.4 percent walk rate. As any Red Sox fan will tell you, you have no idea what you’re going to get from start to start, but his upside is almost as high as anyone in baseball. At first I thought the price point was too high considering the opponent he’s facing, but the Twins offense has performed much better this past month as they have the eighth highest wOBA.
Ubaldo Jimenez: $6,400, @HOU
At this point any pitcher with swing and miss stuff facing the Astros is worth at least a look. I’m not excited about using him because he faced the Astros this past Wednesday and didn’t pitch very well.
No Thanks, But I’ll Pass
Clayton Kershaw: $10,700, @COL
In 16 career starts in Colorado Kershaw has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP. I’ve been saying for weeks there’s nothing wrong with him, but with so many good pitching options available the downside outweighs the limited upside.
Alex Wood: $8,200, @ARI
On a day with so many good pitchers I’m not rolling with Wood because he has a below average strikeout rate (16.4 percent) and above average walk rate (7.8 percent). Also, the Diamondbacks have the fifth highest wOBA against lefties in the majors and the game is being played in Arizona.
