If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After missing a little less than two seasons Drew Hutchison was finally healthy and made 32 starts. In late April I wrote, “After watching his start three starts I’m a believer that his raw stuff is good enough that he could be a 200 K pitcher if given the opportunity to start 31-33 games.” He ended up having 32 starts and pitched 184 innings. Coincidently he struck out 184 batters so if he pitched a few more innings my projection would have come true.

In that same piece I concluded my evaluation of Hutchison that he would finish the year with, “At the end of the year he’ll be somewhere near a 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with 180 strikeouts.” Obviously I was incorrect about the ERA, but he had a 3.85 FIP and 3.82 xFIP so I was definitely on the right track.

The one thing he should try to work on is trying to limit the fly balls. Last year his fly ball rate was 45%, which is high considering the home ballpark is a bam box. If he can lower the fly ball rate to even 40% he’ll have an opportunity to have an ERA in the sub-3.80s. There’s another sign of optimism as his strikeout rate increased month-over-month while the walk rate decreased slightly as the season progressed (image below).

If Hutchison played in a bigger market and in a better pitchers ballpark there would be more talk about him as a potential breakout candidate. He’ll likely be drafted in the 60-70 among starting pitchers (or even later), but he is one of the best candidates to substantially improve in 2015.

My 2015 projection for Hutchison is 200 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 200 Ks and 13 wins.