Last year Pedroia had the lowest home run and stolen base totals since 2007 (I’m excluding 2010 when he only played 75 games) and in the process disappointing his fantasy owners. When evaluating his power, the first thing I noticed was the substantially lower HR/FB rate. The HR/FB rate at home was relatively the same; 7.6 percent compared last year to an 8.6 percent rate (from 2008-12). The biggest drop off came while on the road with a 2.2 percent HR/FB rate last year compared to a 8.1 percent (from 2008-12). Obviously the road HR/FB rate will positively regress, but there are still warning signs his power may be on the decline. For example, other than his rookie year he had the lowest ISO of his career. Maybe that was due to the home runs? Last year he had the lowest extra base hit percentage of his career (table below). The table also shows that the percentage of base hits were still fairly low even if you remove home runs from the equation. Lastly, his ground ball rate was nearly five percentage points higher compared to 2012 and it was the highest of his career. Those four stats are quite alarming and therefore I conclude his power upside in 2014 is going to be limited. Instead of hitting 15-20 home runs I expect his home run totals to be in the 8-14 range.
| Season | PA | Extra Base Hit% | Extra Base Hit% Minus HRs | ISO |
| 2006 | 98 | 35.3% | 23.5% | .112 |
| 2007 | 581 | 29.1% | 24.2% | .125 |
| 2008 | 726 | 34.3% | 26.3% | .167 |
| 2009 | 714 | 34.6% | 26.5% | .152 |
| 2010 | 351 | 42.5% | 28.7% | .205 |
| 2011 | 731 | 31.3% | 20.5% | .167 |
| 2012 | 623 | 35.0% | 25.8% | .160 |
| 2013 | 724 | 27.5% | 22.8% | .114 |
Another concern is the stolen bases. Not only has his stolen base totals decreased year over year, his stolen base attempts have decreased as well. To his credit, last year was the most games he’s ever played in a season; despite the one year he only played 75 games he’s averaged 141 games played since 2007. The road power should definitely improve next year, but how much? The batting average should be about the same, but is there room for improvement? Probably not given the fact he’s making weaker contact and is hitting the ball on the ground more than ever. He’ll most likely be drafted as the second or third second baseman, but I rather take the upside of a Jason Kipnis or wait for a Howard Kendrick or Omar Infante later in the draft.
If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.
