The match ups and data you see below were pulled Sunday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins
These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.
I may be on an island, but I’m still buying Kevin Gausman especially this week when he’s a two start, starter. Both the Twins and Mets have OBP issues. His 4.47 ERA as a starting pitcher this year isn’t a true indicator of his true talent level; he can still miss a ton of bats and most importantly, his hard hit rate, as a starter, is average so the ERA should be lower than what it is.
Like Gausman, I’m staying on the Chris Tillman bandwagon. The biggest reason is he ranks in the top 25 percent among starting pitchers in hard hit rate allowed. Also, the Athletics offense has not been very good since the All-Star Break; they have the second lowest wOBA (only the Braves are worse).
For his career, Mike Leake has a 3.42 ERA and 1.23 WHIP away from the Reds home ballpark. Now he gets play behind one of the best defenses in the majors. He’s a sneaky play in weekly formats.
Chris Bassitt has been on a great run of late, posting a 2.44 ERA, 0.948 WHIP and 21.4 percent strikeout rate since being recalled from Triple-A. I’ve seen some of his starts and he’s benefits from being effectively wild. He has a great matchup against the Rays, one of the worst hitting teams against righties, which is why I’m rolling with him another week.
After watching Trevor Bauer for 3-4 years I’m convinced there is no way to predict how he is going to perform from start to start. He has #1 starter stuff, but below average command and control, which leads to him walking 10 percent of the batter he faces (since July the walk rate is only 7.3 percent). He generates average hard hit rates, but since he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher he allows a lot of home runs. This week he goes to Boston and to Yankee Stadium. You couldn’t think two worse parks for him to go to (Toronto is probably worse), but since his raw stuff is so good he could dominate. He could also get lit up like he did in his previous two starts.
I love Andrew Heaney’s first start against the White Sox and hate the Blue Jays matchup. For this week he may have 7-12 strikeouts with a 3.50 ERA, but since the hard hit rate is above average I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blue Jays righty heavy lineup light him up.