Kevin Guasman’s Fantasy Value for 2013

I’m certain everyone has already given their two cents about Kevin Gausman, the fourth overall pick in the 2012, and how he looked yesterday. As an aside, it’s amazing that he was drafted a year ago and he’s already in the majors. I was impressed with his plus-plus fastball that sat 96-98 mph and touched 99 mph a couple of times. That velocity doesn’t come at the expense of the extra taxation of his arm/elbow/shoulder as his windup and delivery is very easy; it looks like he’s playing catch with the catcher.

He threw an easy plus changeup, slider and curveball. The changeup had good tumbling action, which looked like a splitter. He only threw 5-6 sliders and curveballs, but the slider had good bite to it. The curveball looked the least developed as he threw it as a get me over pitch.

Overall, his stuff is very very good, but he still has a lot to work on with the first being his command. Too often he threw fastballs in the middle of the strike zone (heatmap below). There were times he flashed good sequencing. The at-bat what stood out to me was the at-bat to Jose Bautista in the fifth inning; this is the third time Bautista faced Gausman. The first pitch is a slider down at the knees, below the zone. Guasman follows it up with a great changeup down and on the inside corner for a swing and miss. Then he throws a 97 mph fastball up in the zone that Bautista fouls off. And for the last pitch was a screw you 99 mph fastball up at the letters that Bautista swung and missed. If I could roster him I would because I rather have him than a Jeremy Hellickson, Scott Kazmir or Tim Hudson. In NFBC leagues he’s likely to go for at least Jose Fernandez money, which is too high for me. Even if he stays in the rotation all year, he will most likely be on an innings limit. He’s already thrown 50 innings this year. Maybe he get’s 100-120 more, which is about 14-17 starts.

kevin-gausman-heatmap
Kevin Gausman Heat Map May 23, 2013
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