The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Fantasy baseball owners, please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original article can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: I’m not worried about Justin Verlander. His strikeout rate (27 percent) is the highest it’s been since 2009, and his swing-and-miss rate is the same as it was the past four seasons. The two biggest differences this year has been his BABIP of .344 and the walk rate (8.1 percent). He’s inducing the same amount of ground balls and fly balls, which leads me to believe the BABIP will regress back to his normal BABIP of .290 the rest of the season. Despite the high baseball card statistics, Homer Bailey quietly has been extremely good. His 3.75 ERA can mislead fantasy owners into thinking he’s been mediocre. Instead, look at his 2.70 FIP (fielding independent pitching), walk rates and strikeout rates. There are only 19 pitchers (with at least 12 starts) who have a strikeout rate greater than 24 percent. Of those 19 pitchers, only three have lower walk rates: Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller and Felix Hernandez.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: I’ve been resistant to believe in John Lackey, but he’s made himself into a ground-ball machine, generating ground balls 50.4 percent of the time. Among starters with at least 10 starts this year, 26 pitchers have a ground ball rate of at least 50 percent. Of those 26 pitchers, only eight have a strikeout rate greater than 20 percent. One of those pitchers is Lackey. Quietly, Yovani Gallardo has not allowed a run and has a 0.81 WHIP in his last three starts (21 innings). The Baltimore Orioles have second highest OPS in the majors and have the fifth highest OPS against lefties. This isn’t a slam dunk start for CC Sabathia, who has a 4.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his last five starts. Even when you remove Cole Hamels’ first two horrendous starts of the year, he still has a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 percent walk rate. Hamels has been a little unlucky with his strand rate (69 percent), but all of his other peripheral statistics are basically the same. Hamels is a great buy-low candidate.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Despite the poor start against the Orioles, I’m not backing off my love for Rick Porcello. He’s striking out 24.4 percent of batters while only walking 4 percent of batters in his last 10 starts. Since April 29, Tyler Chatwood has the second lowest ERA among starters with at least five starts despite calling Coors Field his home ballpark. He walks 8.2 percent of batters, which is too high for a pitcher who only strikes out 19.5 percent batters. This upcoming week he faces the second-worst offense in the league in the Mets. He is a must-start in all formats. Despite the poor matchup, I’m confidently starting Corey Kluber because he misses a lot of bats (24.6 strikeout rate) and his low walk rate (4.5 percent). Jose Alvarez doesn’t have remarkable stuff, but he plays on a high powered offense that faces the Angels, a team that has allowed the second most runs in the majors. So, if you’re looking for wins, Alvarez is someone you should roll the dice with. Despite pitching well recently, Matt Cain in 12 career starts at Coors Field, has a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Ubaldo Jimenez has a great matchup against the White Sox and a horrible matchup against the Orioles. With a 12 percent walk rate, you’re playing with fire, but it’s possible he provides a lot of strikeouts against the White Sox. In his last three starts, Edwin Jackson has looked like vintage Jackson with a 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 21.3 percent walk rate and 8 percent walk rate. With starts against the Ryan Braun-less Brewers and the Mariners, Jackson is a great streaming option. Like most fantasy owners, Esmil Rogers conjures up memories of high ERAs and a lot of home runs allowed, but since joining the Blue Jays rotation he has been surprisingly good. In his last three starts against the Rangers twice and the Rockies, he has 2.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 18.2 percent and has only walked four batters in 17.2 innings. Since joining the starting rotation, Rogers has learned a two-seam fastball/power sinker that’s allowing him to be extremely effective because it has heavy sink and excellent movement. If Rogers wasn’t facing the Red Sox, I would’ve ranked him higher, but this is someone you want to add right now in deeper leagues because I’m a believer.

Avoid

Additional Information: The last time Matt Moore faced the Tigers he allowed six earned runs in two innings. After watching his last start, I’m passing on Moore unless I’m extremely desperate. The peripheral numbers suggest John Danks has been unlucky with the ERA, but after watching his last two starts I see little evidence of him turning this around. Since May 3, Mike Leake has been great, with a 1.81 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but he’ll be pitching in one of the best ballparks in the league without a lot of miss-bat stuff against a team that is heating up.