The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.
Top Starters
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
1 |
DET |
@CWS, PHI |
3.19 |
30.1% |
6.1% |
|
|
2 |
TEX |
NYY, @CLE |
3.02 |
32.5% |
8.5% |
|
|
3 |
CWS |
DET, KC |
2.85 |
27.3% |
5.6% |
|
|
4 |
LAD |
CIN |
1.98 |
24.8% |
6.3% |
|
|
5 |
STL |
@ATL |
2.45 |
22.7% |
2.6% |
|
|
6 |
NYM |
@WSH-2 |
2.35 |
29.3% |
5.6% |
|
|
7 |
WSH |
NYM-2 |
2.59 |
18.2% |
3.4% |
|
|
8 |
SEA |
MIN |
2.53 |
25.5% |
4.7% |
|
|
9 |
DET |
@CWS |
3.50 |
23.3% |
8.4% |
|
|
10 |
WSH |
PIT |
2.97 |
24.4% |
8.1% |
|
|
11 |
PIT |
@WSH |
3.06 |
26.5% |
9.9% |
|
|
12 |
KC |
@CWS |
3.21 |
20.9% |
7.2% |
|
|
13 |
SF |
CHC |
3.02 |
24.8% |
6.9% |
|
|
14 |
PHI |
@DET |
2.86 |
23.1% |
3.9% |
|
|
15 |
CIN |
@LAD |
3.81 |
24.1% |
6.0% |
Additional information: Matt Harvey has pitched 130 innings so far this year, which leaves him about 40 innings left. The Detroit Tigers have the second highest OPS in the majors against left-handed pitchers. Cliff Lee owners should start him regardless; don’t get too cute. Even though James Shields has a 4.10 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his last seven starts, he is still an ace facing a bad White Sox offense. After watching the Royals smash Justin Verlander on Saturday, I believe a regression to the 2011-12 version of Verlander isn’t happening. Instead, fantasy owners should expect the pre-2010 Verlander.
Backend Starters
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
16 |
CHC |
@ARI, @SF |
3.17 |
21.2% |
6.8% |
|
|
16 |
LAA |
MIN |
3.30 |
19.0% |
6.5% |
|
|
17 |
ATL |
@NYM, STL |
3.35 |
19.8% |
4.8% |
|
|
18 |
STL |
PHI, @ATL |
2.92 |
26.4% |
6.8% |
|
|
19 |
TB |
@BOS |
4.03 |
20.3% |
4.2% |
|
|
20 |
DET |
@CWS |
2.85 |
28.2% |
7.9% |
|
|
21 |
LAD |
CIN |
3.49 |
19.3% |
7.6% |
|
|
22 |
WSH |
PIT |
3.03 |
23.4% |
9.6% |
|
|
23 |
CIN |
@LAD |
3.53 |
24.9% |
7.1% |
|
|
24 |
DET |
PHI |
4.02 |
18.2% |
4.3% |
|
|
25 |
BOS |
TB |
2.78 |
22.6% |
5.6% |
|
|
26 |
OAK |
LAA |
2.70 |
14.0% |
3.0% |
|
|
27 |
ATL |
STL |
3.02 |
23.5% |
5.3% |
Additional information: Matt Garza, who has a 1.24 and 1.01 WHIP in his last six starts, is scheduled to have two starts this week, but he’s on the trading block and could be traded at any time. I’m all-in on Garza for the rest of the year. In his last four starts, Shelby Miller has a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with a 11.4 percent walk rate. Miller is no longer a must-start, but his stuff is so good that he should figure it out. Also, with 103 innings pitched this year, the Cardinals, who have playoff aspirations, are going to need him in the postseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals put Miller on the DL with a phantom for 2-3 weeks to limit his workload and to keep him fresh for the playoff run. In his first four starts after returning from the DL, David Price has a 1.97 ERA, 0.84 WHIP with a 0.9 percent walk rate. If Price wasn’t facing the Red Sox in Boston, Price would be a must-start. I put more weight in Doug Fister’s 3.35 FIP than the 4.02 ERA, despite allowing 23 earned runs in his past 36 innings (six starts).
Spot Starters
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
28 |
ATL |
@NYM, STL |
3.64 |
17.2% |
6.4% |
|
|
29 |
ARI |
CHC, SD |
2.35 |
21.2% |
6.4% |
|
|
30 |
LAD |
@TOR, CIN |
3.08 |
19.3% |
8.1% |
|
|
31 |
PIT |
@WSH, @MIA |
3.88 |
14.5% |
5.2% |
|
|
32 |
TEX |
NYY, @CLE |
2.93 |
18.7% |
9.6% |
|
|
33 |
OAK |
@HOU, LAA |
3.95 |
16.5% |
8.1% |
|
|
34 |
NYY |
@TEX, TB |
3.63 |
24.5% |
7.3% |
|
|
35 |
MIA |
@COL, PIT |
2.75 |
24.3% |
9.4% |
|
|
35 |
TEX |
NYY |
3.10 |
22.8% |
7.0% |
|
|
36 |
TB |
@NYY |
2.96 |
18.8% |
9.9% |
|
|
37 |
PIT |
@WSH |
2.44 |
24.9% |
9.5% |
|
|
38 |
NYM |
ATL |
3.54 |
17.1% |
13.0% |
|
|
39 |
SEA |
MIN |
3.02 |
22.3% |
3.7% |
|
|
40 |
NYY |
TB |
4.07 |
20.5% |
5.2% |
|
|
41 |
CHC |
@ARI |
3.91 |
24.4% |
8.5% |
|
|
42 |
LAA |
@OAK |
3.37 |
21.2% |
9.1% |
|
|
43 |
NYY |
@TEX |
2.65 |
17.7% |
5.1% |
|
|
44 |
LAD |
@TOR |
3.75 |
18.6% |
5.5% |
|
|
45 |
KC |
BAL |
3.18 |
20.0% |
5.4% |
|
|
46 |
PHI |
@DET |
4.05 |
21.9% |
6.3% |
Additional information: As of now, Kris Medlen has two starts this week, but the rumor is the Alex Wood is going to take Medlen’s spot in the rotation sooner rather than later; he’s already been moved to the fifth spot in the Braves rotation. The Yankees offense is bad, really bad. For the year, they have the third lowest OPS in the majors. If Chris Archer is available in your league, this is a great streaming option, because in his last five starts, he has a 1.69 ERA, 0.88 with a 5.7 percent walk rate. Gerrit Cole will not have better matchups all year with starts against the Nationals and Marlins. Ervin Santana has been amazing this year, but if you can bench him, you should try to find a way. The Braves have the second highest strikeout rate in the majors, which provides a very good matchup for Zack Wheeler and his plus-plus fastball.
Proceed With Caution
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
47 |
CIN |
@SF-2, @LAD |
3.23 |
29.5% |
10.0% |
|
|
48 |
NYM |
ATL, @WSH |
4.32 |
18.4% |
6.6% |
|
|
49 |
TB |
@BOS, @NYY |
3.44 |
23.6% |
12.0% |
|
|
50 |
CIN |
@SF, @LAD |
3.42 |
13.7% |
4.6% |
|
|
51 |
DET |
@CWS, PHI |
4.80 |
19.4% |
4.6% |
|
|
52 |
CHC |
@ARI, @SF |
2.79 |
17.6% |
7.8% |
|
|
53 |
SD |
@MIL, @ARI |
3.81 |
16.2% |
6.8% |
|
|
54 |
CWS |
DET, KC |
3.30 |
24.7% |
10.6% |
|
|
55 |
SEA |
CLE, MIN |
13.40 |
16.0% |
16.0% |
|
|
56 |
STL |
PHI |
4.00 |
23.3% |
8.3% |
|
|
57 |
STL |
@ATL |
3.88 |
18.2% |
7.2% |
|
|
58 |
BAL |
@KC, BOS |
3.86 |
18.1% |
6.0% |
|
|
59 |
CIN |
@SF |
2.79 |
15.3% |
5.6% |
|
|
60 |
PIT |
@MIA |
2.15 |
16.7% |
10.8% |
|
|
61 |
SF |
CIN |
2.15 |
22.1% |
8.1% |
|
|
62 |
CLE |
TEX |
3.73 |
24.4% |
9.6% |
|
|
63 |
CLE |
TEX |
3.88 |
23.9% |
5.6% |
|
|
64 |
SF |
CHC |
5.06 |
22.1% |
7.9% |
|
|
65 |
NYM |
ATL |
3.93 |
18.5% |
6.1% |
|
|
66 |
ATL |
@NYM |
3.98 |
16.5% |
6.8% |
|
|
67 |
MIL |
SD |
3.49 |
15.5% |
3.9% |
|
|
68 |
OAK |
LAA |
4.28 |
20.1% |
7.9% |
|
|
69 |
TOR |
HOU |
4.69 |
16.8% |
8.6% |
Additional information: I was extremely high on Erasmo Ramirez in the preseason because he fills up the strike zone and pitches in a great ballpark that forgives mistake pitches. In his last six starts, Lance Lynn has a 6.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP with only a 20.4 percent strikeout rate; his career strikeout rate in the majors is 24.4 percent. Last year, Lynn struggled significantly in the second half of the season, and it looks as though he is hitting the wall. If you’re looking for wins, Scott Feldman is a great candidate for the rest of the year as he plays on the second-best offense in the majors. Despite three great starts before the All-Star break, Matt Moore is still walking too many hitters (9.1 percent walk rate) and faces the fifth-highest team in OPS against left-handed pitching in the Boston Red Sox. Fantasy owners should expect one poor start and one great one.
Avoid
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
70 |
BOS |
TB, @BAL |
5.42 |
29.0% |
3.2% |
|
|
71 |
CWS |
DET |
4.30 |
24.2% |
5.5% |
|
|
72 |
TB |
@BOS, @NYY |
4.90 |
18.2% |
5.4% |
|
|
73 |
SF |
CIN, CHC |
4.26 |
25.2% |
9.7% |
|
|
74 |
OAK |
@HOU |
3.82 |
18.7% |
5.5% |
|
|
75 |
BOS |
TB, @BAL |
4.24 |
21.5% |
10.3% |
|
|
76 |
CHC |
@SF |
5.11 |
19.5% |
8.1% |
|
|
77 |
ATL |
@NYM |
4.07 |
17.0% |
6.5% |
|
|
78 |
HOU |
OAK |
0.00 |
7.7% |
11.5% |
|
|
79 |
BOS |
TB |
3.76 |
21.6% |
10.1% |
|
|
80 |
CLE |
@SEA |
4.30 |
21.2% |
8.4% |
|
|
81 |
ARI |
CHC, SD |
4.03 |
20.2% |
8.1% |
|
|
82 |
HOU |
OAK |
3.91 |
16.1% |
7.8% |
|
|
83 |
MIL |
SD |
4.83 |
18.3% |
8.7% |
|
|
84 |
ARI |
SD |
3.92 |
20.0% |
3.0% |
|
|
85 |
PIT |
@WSH, @MIA |
3.19 |
16.3% |
7.4% |
|
|
86 |
CWS |
KC |
3.71 |
18.9% |
6.9% |
|
|
87 |
WSH |
PIT, NYM |
3.32 |
10.8% |
3.2% |
|
|
88 |
CLE |
@SEA |
3.42 |
15.8% |
7.7% |
|
|
89 |
NYM |
ATL, @WSH |
0.79 |
22.7% |
2.3% |
|
|
90 |
NYY |
@TEX, TB |
4.57 |
20.5% |
6.0% |
|
|
91 |
TB |
@BOS |
4.66 |
20.3% |
5.5% |
|
|
92 |
BAL |
BOS |
3.95 |
19.0% |
8.8% |
|
|
93 |
ARI |
CHC |
5.29 |
18.7% |
8.6% |
|
|
94 |
OAK |
@HOU, LAA |
4.24 |
17.5% |
5.6% |
|
|
95 |
BOS |
@BAL |
4.58 |
19.2% |
8.4% |
|
|
96 |
COL |
MIL |
2.56 |
15.9% |
7.9% |
|
|
97 |
BAL |
@KC |
2.67 |
14.0% |
7.0% |
|
|
98 |
CLE |
@SEA, TEX |
4.56 |
21.7% |
12.2% |
|
|
99 |
TOR |
LAD, HOU |
5.16 |
22.1% |
7.6% |
|
|
100 |
TOR |
LAD |
3.84 |
16.2% |
7.0% |
|
|
101 |
MIL |
SD, @COL |
1.88 |
24.0% |
9.6% |
Additional information: Jake Peavy owners will luck out if he’s traded before his start against the Detroit Tigers. During his Saturday start, his fastball hit 93 mph multiple times, suggesting he could have sustained success the rest of the year. If you can buy low, I would. I’m not a believer that Tyler Skaggs will have sustained success the rest of the year, but with two starts against two bad offenses in a shallow pitcher class this week, it’s hard not to go with the matchup upside. Sonny Gray has shined in his brief few innings in long relief for the Athletics. If Tommy Milone continues to pitch poorly, Gray should take Milone’s spot in the starting rotation. Josh Johnson, in his last five starts has a 6.26 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. I’m staying away for the rest of the year. If you remove wins from the fantasy equation, Chris Tillman is a spot starter at best; Tillman is going to regress to his 4.95 FIP as the year progresses.
