The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Since June 1, Jose Fernandez quietly has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.82 ERA) and a 26 percent strikeout rate. Speaking of June 1, the New York Yankees have the second fewest home runs in the majors (25), nine less the Miami Marlins. The trade for Alfonso Soriano will help add power to the lineup, but his .284 OBP will not greatly improve the offense. Therefore, Zack Greinke is a must start in all formats. The Tampa Rays are playing great baseball in the majors and the San Francisco Giants are clearly struggling and should be sellers at the trade deadline. Madison Bumgarner pitches a great game, but will earn a win.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: I have no idea why Tyler Chatwood is only owned in 27 percent of ESPN leagues. His stuff isn’t good enough to sustain a 2.48 ERA, but it’s definitely good enough to be a 3.20 ERA. This week Chatwood faces the Braves and their second highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.6 percent). Not only does Matt Moore have a great pitching matchup this week, he has a 1.01 ERA and .084 WHIP in his last five starts. The command of the changeup, his third pitch, has been outstanding; the strikeout rate and swing and miss rate are is 42 percent and 31 percent higher respectively. Despite having a 5.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his last eight starts I’m still a believer in Jordan Zimmerman. With a walk rate of only 5 percent, a strikeout rate of 21.6 percent and a BABIP of .331 suggests he’s been unlucky. The Detroit Tigers have the third best OPS in the majors against left handed pitching. Gio Gonzalez has pitched great, but I have doubts that he’s a must-start … especially with a nearly 10 percent walk rate.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: in July (21 games) the Colorado Rockies have the lowest OPS in the majors. What makes that statistic so surgprising is they’ve played a little more than half of the games in Coors Field. The Rockies offense is struggling, which is a great opportunity for Gerrit Cole to have a big day. It looks as though Jake Peavy will be traded before the trade deadline, which means he may miss his start against the Tigers, making him almost a must start. Eric Stults has a 2.45 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home. Stults is a must-start any time he pitches at PETCO Park. Since June 1, CC Sabathia has a 5.78 ERA and 1.34 WHIP (in 10 starts). If he wasn’t pitching in PETCO I would have him in the 70s. Hisashi Iwakuma in last eight starts has a 4.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and now faces the highest scoring offense in the majors in Boston.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Alex Wood features a low- to mid-90s fastball with a plus change-up and a knuckle curveball that can miss a ton of bats (46.7 percent strikeout rate). Despite a poor outing against the New York Mets a few days ago, Wood can miss bats and gets an opportunity to pitch against two bad teams. Don’t be fooled by the 0.60 ERA from Jarred Cosart. He pitches for a bad team, which means it will be hard to earn wins. Combine that with a .214 BABIP, a regression is coming for Cosart. Patrick Corbin has been one of the luckiest pitcher this year with a .246 BABIP, 7.5 percent HR/FB rate and 82.1 percent LOB%. Sell high. Jarrord Parker has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last 13 starts. Parker has not pitched nearly as well as last year, but he’s a pitcher who will not hurt your ratios, which makes him a great backend starter.

Avoid

Additional Information: Carlos Torres has pitched mainly in relief role this year for the Mets, but his last two appearances came as a starter. In those two starts he has a 23.4 percent strikeout rate and only a 4.3 percent walk rate. Torres features a low-90s fastball/cutter with an average curveball and change-up that can miss enough bats to be a solid streaming option, especially at home against the Royals who will be playing without Billy Butler or Eric Hosmer. I have not believed in Jeff Locke all year because he doesn’t miss enough bats and walks too many batters to maintain his 2.14 ERA. I believe his FIP of 3.83 and xFIP of 4.19 are a better numerical representation of good he is of a pitcher.