The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins
Pitching Notes
Kyle Kendricks has been put up some really good numbers since making his Major League debut in early July, but I’m not buying yet. Let me clarify. He’s not going to continue to have a sub-2.00 ERA, but can he have an ERA in the 3.30-3.50 range the rest of the year? Yes, he can because he doesn’t walk batters and has pretty good command of the strike zone. However, his upside is limited from a fantasy perspective because he doesn’t miss enough bats (16 percent) to startable in shallower formats.
On the surface Drew Smyly’s start at the Blue Jays looks like he’s a must sit, but not necessarily. Before I looked up the statistics I thought the Jays would smash lefties because their lineup is so right handed heavy. However, the Jays are only 21st in the majors in wOBA and 20th in OPS. My ranking suggests he’s not a must start in a shallow leagues because he has been inconsistent all year and can be prone to more random blowup starts.
Stephen Strasburg is a really good pitcher, but I’m getting to the point where I’m starting to question his internal fortitude. It seems as though when hitters reach base he loses focus and becomes even more hittable. For example, in his career, when runners are not on-base hitters have a .591 OPS, but when runners are on-base batters have a .696 OPS. To put those numbers into perspective starting pitchers (with at least five starts this year) have a .696 OPS when the bases are empty and a .709 OPS when runners are on-base. The discrepancy is much lower in the aggregate compared to a 100 point difference for Strasburg. He has the upside to be a top five starting pitcher, but I don’t think it’s going to happen until he performs better when batters are on-base.
Since joining the Yankees Brandon McCarthy has a 2.21 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP with a 23.2 percent strikeout rate and a 3.9 percent walk rate. If he pitched in front of an above average defense he would be a must start in all formats, but that’s not the case especially when Derek Jeter is playing. In the last 30 days the Astros are eleventh in the majors in wOBA against righties and the lineup could get a boost if George Springer comes off the DL.
After the first two months of the season I ranked Ian Kennedy as a top 20-30 starting pitcher because he was missing a ton of bats and wasn’t walking batters. However, since June his walk rate is 9.9 percent and it looks as though it’s not going to substantially improve in the near future. He’s still missing a lot of bats, which will allow him to have really good starts in bursts, but he’s no longer an automatic start (even when he’s pitching at home).
After watching most of R.A. Dickey’s starts I’ve come to the conclusion that if you own him you have to leave him in your starting lineup regardless of how well/poor he has performed previously. I’ve tried “scouting” him, but I haven’t been able to gleam anything from what he’s doing. It seems as though the quality of the knuckleball changes from inning to inning and start to start. He gets to pitch in a National League park, but Miller Park is one of the worst parks for his fly ball heavy skill set.
Kevin Gausman has been underwhelming in his last five starts. He’s stopped missing bats (15.7 percent strikeout rate) and has been walking a lot of batters (9.4 percent walk rate). With any young pitcher there is going to be inconsistency, but I’m still a believer in his ultimate skill set moving forward. I’m expecting a bounce back start against a mediocre-below average offense in the Cubs.
