These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are based on statistical data pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. You can view the original post at TTFB.

Top starters

Additional Information: Cliff Lee, in his last nine starts, has quietly been very mediocre with a 4.17 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. However, the advanced statstics suggest he’s been unlucky. The walk and strikeout rates are identical compared to the beginning of the year. The ground-ball rate has increased 14.4 percent, but his BABIP, strangely, has risen from .271 to .339.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Hisashi Iwakuma, in his past 15 starts, has a 4.05 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Unlike Cliff Lee, where the underlying peripherals suggest he’s been unlucky, Iwakuma’s numbers suggest he hasn’t pitched as well. Iwakuma’s strikeout rate has decreased 22 percent and his walk rate has increased 33 percent. Speaking of another fantasy ace who’s struggling, David Price has been extremely hittable in his last five starts with a 4.78 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. However, the strikeout and walk rates have maintained for the season, with the biggest difference coming from his BABIP, which is .356 in those five starts. Clay Buchholz had another solid rehab start (he’s had three so far) for the Pawtucket Red Sox, going 3.2 innings and throwing 73 percent strikes. Buchholz has been on the DL since June 9 with a sore neck and looks as though he’ll be ready to face the Tampa Bay Rays this week. Odds are if you owned him for this long, and if you’re in the middle of a playoff race and/or on the cusp of gaining another point (in roto leagues), then it would be extremely difficult to leave him on the bench.

Spot starters

Additional Information: If you remove Zack Wheeler’s first three starts, he has a 3.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.3 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate. With the Mets being so bad, I would have Wheeler lower in the rankings because of the decreased likelihood of earning a win, but with a start against the Nationals and Dan Haren, Wheeler has a great opportunity to have a really solid start. To say Matt Cain has been inconsistent in 2013 would be an understatement, but the Dodgers have .696 OPS at home compared to a .750 OPS on the road. Corey Kluber was originally slated to pitch in relief on Friday, but with the injury to Justin Masterson, Kluber will assume Masterson’s spot in the rotation. I loved Kluber before he went on the DL (on August 6) with a finger sprain.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: The Cleveland Indians have the fifth highest OPS (.750) in the majors against lefties, which is why I would be hesitant to start Hector Santiago. Since the All-Star, break Gerrit Cole has pitched better than his 3.62 ERA would indicate. He’s striking out 21 percent of the batters he faces and is only walking five percent. Five percent may not seem that low, but that puts him in the top 10 percent of starting pitchers. I love pitchers who miss bats and do not allow free passes. Next year, if Cole is in the starting rotation to begin the year, he will most likely be top 30-35 starting pitcher for me. If you remove Ubaldo Jimenez’s first four starts of the year, he has a 2.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP with a 23.3 strikeout rate and 11.3 walk rate. With a WHIP that high, his ERA is unlikely to sustain, but he’s been extremely effective in bursts.

Avoid

Additional Information: If you’re wondering why Bartolo Colon is not on the list, it’s because his fastball velocity was still down in his last start; his max velocity was 93 mph, which is three mph less than before he went on the DL. Since July (13 starts) Lance Lynn has a 5.47 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. His .366 BABIP suggests he has been unlucky, but his BABIP has been so high because the command has been extremely loose, and he’s thrown a lot of meatballs in the middle of the plate.