The matchups and statistical data were pulled Friday, September 20 for fantasy baseball week 25. Please be aware these are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.
Top starters
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
1 |
Adam Wainwright |
STL |
WSH, CHC |
2.98 |
23.0% |
3.7% |
|
2 |
Yu Darvish |
TEX |
HOU, LAA |
2.81 |
32.7% |
9.3% |
|
3 |
Mike Minor |
ATL |
MIL, PHI |
3.19 |
22.1% |
5.6% |
|
4 |
Clayton Kershaw |
LAD |
COL |
1.94 |
24.8% |
5.8% |
|
5 |
Cole Hamels |
PHI |
@MIA |
3.48 |
22.2% |
5.7% |
|
6 |
Anibal Sanchez |
DET |
@MIA |
2.51 |
26.7% |
7.4% |
|
7 |
Max Scherzer |
DET |
@MIN |
2.95 |
29.0% |
6.3% |
|
8 |
Cliff Lee |
PHI |
@ATL |
2.95 |
24.5% |
3.9% |
|
9 |
Stephen Strasburg |
WSH |
@ARI |
2.96 |
26.7% |
7.7% |
|
10 |
Madison Bumgarner |
SF |
LAD |
2.77 |
24.8% |
7.7% |
|
11 |
Homer Bailey |
CIN |
PIT |
3.40 |
24.1% |
5.7% |
|
12 |
Gerrit Cole |
PIT |
@CHC |
3.23 |
21.1% |
6.1% |
|
13 |
Zack Greinke |
LAD |
COL |
2.75 |
20.4% |
6.6% |
|
14 |
Ivan Nova |
NYY |
@HOU |
3.36 |
19.8% |
8.0% |
|
15 |
David Price |
TB |
@NYY |
3.42 |
20.5% |
3.8% |
|
16 |
James Shields |
KC |
@CWS |
3.33 |
20.6% |
7.4% |
|
17 |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
SEA |
KC |
2.76 |
21.0% |
4.9% |
|
18 |
Chris Sale |
CWS |
KC |
3.08 |
26.3% |
5.4% |
|
19 |
Ervin Santana |
KC |
@SEA |
3.23 |
19.3% |
5.7% |
|
20 |
Felix Hernandez |
SEA |
OAK |
3.01 |
25.6% |
5.2% |
|
21 |
Jered Weaver |
LAA |
OAK |
3.36 |
18.9% |
5.9% |
Additional Information: Gerrit Cole has gotten better in each start since his call-up and now, Cole is at the point where he is pitching as an ace. For his nine starts, Cole only had 16.6 percent strikeout rate. In his last nine starts, he has a 25.7 strikeout rate. During the first nine starts, he threw his plus-plus (on the scouting scale) fastball nearly 75 percent of the time.
However, in the last nine starts he has utilized the slider and cutter more. Cole is the best pitcher on the Pirates staff and should start game one of the NLCS (if they make it to the NLCS). Jered Weaver was scratched from his start on Friday with forearm tightness. It’s still up in the air if he will pitch again the rest of the season. And if you are running fantasy baseball week 25 lineups, my hunch is that Weaver will not pitch again because the Angels have nothing to play for, and are better off giving Weaver the offseason to prepare for next season. That said, if he starts next week, you’re starting him.
Backend starters
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
22 |
Matt Cain |
SF |
LAD, SD |
4.06 |
21.1% |
7.1% |
|
23 |
Derek Holland |
TEX |
HOU, LAA |
3.48 |
21.0% |
7.5% |
|
24 |
Johnny Cueto |
CIN |
NYM, PIT |
3.02 |
21.4% |
7.0% |
|
25 |
Zack Wheeler |
NYM |
@CIN, MIL |
3.42 |
19.5% |
10.7% |
|
26 |
Alex Wood |
ATL |
MIL, PHI |
3.24 |
23.6% |
8.5% |
|
27 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
LAD |
@SF, COL |
3.03 |
19.6% |
6.4% |
|
28 |
Francisco Liriano |
PIT |
@CHC |
2.92 |
24.1% |
9.6% |
|
29 |
Shelby Miller |
STL |
WSH |
3.01 |
24.1% |
7.7% |
|
30 |
Danny Salazar |
CLE |
CWS |
3.08 |
30.3% |
7.4% |
|
31 |
Mat Latos |
CIN |
NYM |
3.14 |
21.6% |
6.5% |
|
32 |
Julio Teheran |
ATL |
PHI |
3.14 |
21.9% |
6.1% |
|
33 |
Jarrod Parker |
OAK |
@SEA |
3.81 |
16.6% |
8.0% |
|
34 |
Gio Gonzalez |
WSH |
@STL |
3.39 |
23.5% |
9.6% |
|
35 |
Joe Kelly |
STL |
CHC |
2.74 |
15.0% |
8.7% |
|
36 |
A.J. Burnett |
PIT |
@CIN |
3.43 |
25.6% |
8.5% |
|
37 |
Doug Fister |
DET |
@MIN |
3.71 |
17.8% |
5.1% |
|
38 |
Jordan Zimmermann |
WSH |
@STL |
3.33 |
18.6% |
4.8% |
|
39 |
Andrew Cashner |
SD |
@SF |
3.21 |
17.7% |
6.9% |
|
40 |
Corey Kluber |
CLE |
@MIN |
3.62 |
22.2% |
5.5% |
|
41 |
Patrick Corbin |
ARI |
WSH |
3.17 |
20.6% |
6.1% |
|
42 |
Kris Medlen |
ATL |
PHI |
3.32 |
18.8% |
5.6% |
|
43 |
Alex Cobb |
TB |
@NYY |
3.02 |
22.6% |
7.8% |
|
44 |
Clay Buchholz |
BOS |
@BAL |
1.51 |
24.7% |
9.3% |
|
45 |
Justin Verlander |
DET |
@MIN, @MIA |
3.66 |
22.3% |
8.1% |
|
46 |
Hiroki Kuroda |
NYY |
TB |
3.17 |
18.1% |
5.1% |
|
47 |
C.J. Wilson |
LAA |
@TEX |
3.36 |
20.3% |
9.4% |
|
48 |
Sonny Gray |
OAK |
@SEA |
2.50 |
25.8% |
6.9% |
Additional Information: Jarrod Parker’s start on September 15 was pushed back one day due to flu like symptoms. Parker proceeded to get rocked to the tune of eight runs (seven earned) in his last start (September 16). I’m giving Parker a free pass due to the illness, but I’ll be monitoring his start on Saturday closely to wind up fantasy baseball week 25. Justin Verlander is scheduled to pitch the last day of the season against the Marlins. The Tigers should have the Central sown up by that point and the Tigers will want to setup their starting rotation for the playoffs.
Spot starters
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
49 |
Eric Stults |
SD |
ARI, @SF |
4.02 |
15.4% |
4.7% |
|
50 |
Bartolo Colon |
OAK |
@LAA |
2.73 |
14.0% |
3.7% |
|
51 |
Michael Wacha |
STL |
WSH |
3.21 |
24.2% |
7.4% |
|
52 |
Alexi Ogando |
TEX |
LAA |
3.15 |
16.8% |
9.3% |
|
53 |
Dillon Gee |
NYM |
MIL |
3.47 |
17.3% |
5.7% |
|
54 |
Jon Niese |
NYM |
@CIN |
3.81 |
17.0% |
7.9% |
|
55 |
Ricky Nolasco |
LAD |
@SF |
3.55 |
19.5% |
5.6% |
|
56 |
Jhoulys Chacin |
COL |
@LAD |
3.22 |
16.1% |
7.0% |
|
57 |
John Lackey |
BOS |
@BAL |
3.44 |
20.7% |
5.2% |
|
58 |
Rick Porcello |
DET |
@MIA |
4.45 |
18.5% |
6.0% |
|
59 |
Chris Tillman |
BAL |
TOR, BOS |
3.71 |
20.8% |
8.3% |
|
60 |
Chris Archer |
TB |
BAL, @TOR |
3.02 |
18.3% |
7.1% |
|
61 |
Matt Moore |
TB |
@NYY, @TOR |
3.34 |
22.8% |
11.3% |
|
62 |
Paul Maholm |
ATL |
MIL |
4.35 |
15.6% |
7.6% |
|
63 |
Jorge De La Rosa |
COL |
@LAD |
3.49 |
15.7% |
8.7% |
|
64 |
Ubaldo Jimenez |
CLE |
CWS |
3.39 |
24.0% |
10.5% |
|
65 |
James Paxton |
SEA |
KC |
2.12 |
15.7% |
10.0% |
Additional Information: Bartolo Colon’s fastball in his last start looked like the fastball he had to begin the year. Rick Procello has had an up-and-down year, but he has not pitched as poorly as his ERA would indicate, for all those keeping score in fantasy baseball week 25. With a xFIP of 3.32 and the face he’s still only 24 years old he is going to be someone I target in every draft next year.
In three major league starts (against the Tigers, Cardinals and Rays) James Paxton has been fairly effective posting a 15.7 strikeout rate and ten percent walk rate. Walks have been an issue for him this year in the minors because of his long arms and inconsistent delivery, but with a start at home against a team that has been struggling against lefties is worth a gamble.
Proceed with caution
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
66 |
Jose Quintana |
CWS |
TOR, KC |
3.49 |
19.8% |
6.8% |
|
67 |
Tanner Roark |
WSH |
@STL, @ARI |
1.08 |
20.8% |
5.8% |
|
68 |
Brandon McCarthy |
ARI |
@SD, WSH |
4.57 |
14.0% |
3.6% |
|
69 |
Mike Leake |
CIN |
NYM |
3.21 |
15.2% |
6.1% |
|
70 |
R.A. Dickey |
TOR |
TB |
4.21 |
18.4% |
7.8% |
|
71 |
Jeff Samardzija |
CHC |
PIT |
4.42 |
23.5% |
8.6% |
|
72 |
Martin Perez |
TEX |
HOU |
3.64 |
15.0% |
6.6% |
|
73 |
Matt Garza |
TEX |
LAA |
4.06 |
21.6% |
6.6% |
|
74 |
Kyle Lohse |
MIL |
@ATL |
3.51 |
15.4% |
4.6% |
|
75 |
Brett Oberholtzer |
HOU |
NYY |
2.99 |
16.0% |
3.7% |
|
76 |
Charlie Morton |
PIT |
@CHC, @CIN |
3.35 |
17.3% |
6.7% |
|
77 |
Bronson Arroyo |
CIN |
PIT |
3.56 |
15.3% |
4.0% |
|
78 |
Robbie Erlin |
SD |
ARI |
5.18 |
14.9% |
7.5% |
|
79 |
Wade Miley |
ARI |
@SD, WSH |
3.75 |
17.4% |
8.1% |
|
80 |
Wei-Yin Chen |
BAL |
@TB, BOS |
4.03 |
18.1% |
6.8% |
|
81 |
Scott Feldman |
BAL |
BOS |
3.49 |
17.3% |
7.4% |
|
82 |
Hector Santiago |
CWS |
@CLE |
3.53 |
21.7% |
11.1% |
Additional Information: If you’re looking for more information about Tanner Roark, checkout last weeks starting pitcher’s rankings. Other than pitchers missing bats, I love pitchers who do not allow free passes. Brandon McCarthy, in his last five starts (38 innings) has only walked one batter. Rounding out fantasy baseball week 25, Matt Garza in his last ten starts has a 5.51 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Normally, Garza wouldn’t be this high in the rankings, but his upside is the highest of anyone not named R.A. Dickey in this section of the rankings.
Avoid
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
Opp. |
ERA |
K% |
BB% |
|
83 |
Todd Redmond |
TOR |
@BAL, TB |
3.82 |
25.2% |
6.9% |
|
84 |
A.J. Griffin |
OAK |
@LAA, @SEA |
3.78 |
20.5% |
6.6% |
|
85 |
Scott Kazmir |
CLE |
@MIN |
4.34 |
22.7% |
7.1% |
|
86 |
Travis Wood |
CHC |
@STL |
3.05 |
17.4% |
7.7% |
|
87 |
Nathan Eovaldi |
MIA |
PHI, DET |
3.79 |
17.1% |
9.1% |
|
88 |
Randall Delgado |
ARI |
@SD |
3.98 |
17.3% |
4.8% |
|
89 |
Dan Straily |
OAK |
@LAA |
4.08 |
19.4% |
9.0% |
|
90 |
Jon Lester |
BOS |
@BAL |
3.76 |
19.4% |
7.4% |
|
91 |
Jake Arrieta |
CHC |
PIT |
5.06 |
19.7% |
13.0% |
|
92 |
Erik Johnson |
CWS |
KC |
2.87 |
17.1% |
10.5% |
|
93 |
Yovani Gallardo |
MIL |
@NYM |
4.29 |
18.1% |
8.7% |
|
94 |
Jason Vargas |
LAA |
OAK, @TEX |
4.28 |
17.0% |
7.3% |
|
95 |
Garrett Richards |
LAA |
OAK, @TEX |
3.77 |
17.1% |
7.1% |
|
96 |
Juan Nicasio |
COL |
@LAD |
4.98 |
16.6% |
9.1% |
|
97 |
Jacob Turner |
MIA |
PHI |
3.51 |
15.1% |
10.6% |
|
98 |
Scott Baker |
CHC |
@STL |
0.82 |
13.2% |
2.6% |
|
99 |
Trevor Cahill |
ARI |
@SD |
4.12 |
16.1% |
10.3% |
|
100 |
Tim Lincecum |
SF |
LAD |
4.40 |
23.1% |
9.2% |
|
101 |
Yordano Ventura |
KC |
@SEA, @CWS |
1.58 |
13.0% |
8.7% |
Additional Information: More for fantasy baseball week 25, A.J. Griffin has an extremely favorable week with starts at Seattle and Los Angeles. Griffin is an extreme fly ball pitcher as he leads all starters with at least 20 starts in fly ball rate (47.8 percent). It’s also no surprise that he has also allowed the most home runs (35). In 39 percent of his starts this year he’s given up four earned runs or more. Therefore, if you start him you’ll be playing with fire with your ratios.
Lastly, your welcome America. Yordano Ventura was up-and-down in his first career start. Specifically, his command was extremely loose which put him in extremely stressful situations the entire game. If it wasn’t for the three double plays he induced, his outing would have been far worse than the box score indicated. If you read my fantasy daily for Wednesday, you would have picked up and used Todd Redmond. Redmond has one extremely tough and one favorable matchup, which is why he is this low in the rankings.
