The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday afternoon. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins
These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.
Shane Greene was the fantasy darling to begin the season but after two brutal outings against the Indians and Twins his fantasy stock has decreased. The reason why he’s struggled has been due to lefties — they have a .775 OPS compared to .545 against righties. The White Sox do not have an overly left handed lineup so he could be a sneaky option in DFS, but I’m avoiding him in his start against the Royals.
I watched Mike Foltynewicz’s Major League debut as a starter and I see a future top ten closer. He has the body to hold up for 200-plus innings a year The fastball is an 80 pitch that reach triple digits, but what about the secondary offerings? He throws a couple of variations of the curveball and one of which looks like a slider to me, but the bottom line is they can miss bats. He only threw 3-4 changeups so the sample size is small, but they didn’t look good. The question is the command going to be there to turn over a lineup three times? The delivery has a lot of moving parts to it so it may take awhile for the command to come around (if it ever does). A player comp I’ve heard is Garrett Richards, which makes sense. Since the Braves are going to be bad this year they can give him an opportunity to have 40-60 Major League starts before deciding what he ultimately becomes.
Chris Archer has looked nothing less of fabulous this year. I’ve watched his starts and he has a great chance to finish the year as a top 15-20 starting pitcher (assuming the wins are there). I’ve said for two years if he’s going to take a big step forward the changeup has to improve. Historically he’s been a fastball and slider pitcher, which works great against righties, but not so well against lefties — before 2015 lefties had a .708 OPS compared to only a .549 OPS against righties. This year lefties have a .490 OPS and righties a .432 OPS. I want to see how he fares against lefties in his next 1-3 starts, but a breakout is coming.
Collin McHugh is 14th in the majors (among starting pitchers) in swing and miss strike rate on pitches in the strike zone. Last year he was 17th. Those rates put him in the same class as Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Alex Cobb, Zack Greinke and so on.What he’s doing is legit. He’s going to finish the year as a top 20 starting pitcher.
Is it time to worry about Clayton Kershaw? No. The quality of his stuff is still there and his swing and miss rate on pitches in the strike zone is still the same. He currently has a 20 percent HR/FB rate and a .384 BABIP. Both of those numbers are going to positively regress. If you could get him at a discount I would do so in a heartbeat.