Yesterday the Cardinals traded outfielders Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to the Rays for two prospects: pitcher, Matt Liberatore and catcher, Edgardo Rodriguez. All of my analysis will focus on the fantasy values for 2020.
Martinez will be in the wrong side of a platoon at DH/1B. For his career he’s a .331/.405/.570 against lefties, which means he’ll have value during the times the Rays are facing lefties. To be fair, he’s hit against righties too but with Ji-Man Choi and Yoshi Tsutsugo in the picture it going to be difficult for Martinez to get at-bats.
According to Keith Law’s analysis, Arozarena is the most valuable player in the deal. I’ve never seen Arozarena play and before this trade I knew next to nothing about him so I’m not going to wax on about the skills he’ll provide. By reading to Mr. Law’s report Arozarena will probably play between right and center field, which leaves Hunter Renfroe as the fourth outfielder. Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier will probably miss time throughout the year so Renfroe’s draft day value will be suppressed but he could be a lottery ticket at the end of drafts. Renfroe will be a great lottery ticket towards the end of NFBC drafts.
For fantasy, Arozarena probably won’t bring anything useful in shallow formats because he won’t hit for power or steal enough bases to matter. I can see a scenario where he’s a 15/20 player, but the probability of that happening is less than 20 percent. I think 10/15 with a .280ish batting average is most likely.
The most interesting part of the deal is what this means for the fantasy values of Cardinals’ players. Harrison Bader will (finally) play every day in center field. I was high on him entering 2019 and his batting average unfortunately got BABIPed and was sent to the minors and lost his job. I think he can hit .239 with room for more because of speed. Also, it’s possible he’s a 20/20 players. It will be difficult to get the steals because he’ll likely bath eighth, but the upside is there. Lastly, if he struggles offensively, his defense is so good he should continue to play every day.
Tommy Edman will also get to play every day, probably in left field. He only played a little more than half a season, but he had the third highest WAR among position players. It seems like every year the Cardinals call-up a non-highly touted player and he does exceptionally well. Roster Resource has Dexter Fowler batting leadoff, but I think Edman will either bat first or second. (Quick aside, Fowler is done. He maybe a fifth outfielder in a 15-team mixed, but that’s his upside.) Like Bader, Edman could be a 20/20 player. I think the probability of this happening is more than 50 percent.
By June Tyler O’Neill could be the starting right fielder. He’s very much like Renfroe in that he will hit for a lot of power but will hit in the .230’s. Another scenario, albeit a more unlikely one, is Matt Carpenter gets benched, Edman moves to third base and O’Neill plays in left field. O’Neill is a great lottery ticket for the last three rounds of your NFBC draft.
