If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After being relatively healthy his Major League career Gio Gonzalez had his first trip on the DL in 2014 with shoulder inflammation. Before going on the DL his numbers suffered (table below). It’s possible the bad numbers were caused by the injury, bad luck and/or a small sample size. Either way, after he came off the DL he was a much different pitcher.

The biggest question about Gonzalez’s fantasy value is whether or not you believe the 8.3% walk rate he posted after coming off the DL. Before 2014 his career walk rate was 10.5% and from 2011-13 his walk rate was 9.7%. I never like high walk pitchers because they’re more prone to blow up innings (and starts) and they leave games earlier, which lowers their win potential. Since 2011 35% of his starts have ended with an ERA above four (i.e. the in-game ERA for that specific start was above four). That’s incredibly high number for a pitcher who misses that many bats.

The primary reason why I don’t believe in the lower walk rate was his fastball command didn’t improve. After coming off the DL the strike percentage of his fastball was 64.7% and from 2011-14 (before going on the DL) his strike percentage was 64.2%.

I have the same advice as last year for any Gonzalez owner. If you have him you have to keep him in your lineup no matter what. Since he’s a high walk pitcher he’s going to be prone to random blow up starts. The blow up starts will be unpredictable, but do not waiver. When he’s clicking he can be one of top 15 pitchers in baseball.

In regards to his win potential there’s a reason why he’s only won 21 games the past two seasons. That reason is his he only six innings per start (which is primarily due to his high pitch counts due to the high number of walks). The Nationals should be able to walk away with the NL East, which is why I projected Stephen Strausberg and Jordan Zimmerman for 14-15 wins. However, I can’t go more than 12 for Gonzalez because his ability to win games will be bullpen dependent.

My 2015 projection for Gonzalez is 190 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 190 Ks and 12 wins.