Of all the players I’ve written about, no player screams regression more than Ramirez, but despite that he is being bandied about as a no doubt top ten fantasy player. I frankly do not get it. I believe the industry is inflating a small sample and is chasing last year’s statistics. For example, will he have a .363 BABIP and 21.7% HR/FB rate again? Probably not. Before 2013 he had a career 13 percent HR/FB rate, which is far less than 2013s rate. Even his biggest fantasy proponents have to expect some decline next year. The question is, how much will he decline? Last year he had the highest line drive rate of his career (table below) and his ground ball rate was extremely low. The ground ball rate was at the same level as when he was .300-plus hitter.
From 2005 to 2010 his career BABIP was .347, but from 2011-12 his BABIP was .285, which creates doubt what his true BABIP is. Other than BABIP, his contact rates were the best of his career. That said, in 2011 he was beset by a myriad of injuries (foot, back and left shoulder surgery) that limited him to only 95 games. It’s impossible to know how much the injuries affected his play, but if you’re willing to discount 2011 as an injury riddled year then you’re only left with one “bad” year. If you decided to discount 2011, then it’s possible the 2012 season could be seen as a fluky poor year in which he was affected by the BABIP monster. I will admit a huge leap of faith is needed to come to that conclusion, but if you’re willing to take that leap you could have a top ten talent in the early middle rounds. However, considering his ADP is already of a top ten player leaves little room for error. He has to 25-plus home runs and 20 stolen bases to be worth that pick.
Overall, this is a player who has only averaged 119 games the past four seasons (his 2013 thumb injury was a little fluky because he suffered it while diving for a baseball in the WBC), had an extremely high HR/FB rate that should regress especially since he plays in a pitcher’s park and is now entering his 30s. The upside of a.300 hitter with 20/20 production is still there, but his track record suggests he should be a late second, early third round pick instead of a no doubt top ten pick. Lastly, shortstop is deeper than you think. I have no problem waiting for Xander Bogaerts or Jed Lowrie much later in drafts.
If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.
