Yesterday I wrote about hitters that should improve in the second half so it only makes sense to write about hitters that will regress. If you have any questions you can reach me on Twitter.
Michael Brantley – I’m cheating a little bit here because I don’t believe he’s going to decline or improve and here’s why. To begin the season Brantley essentially began the year on the DL (he only played two the first two weeks of the season) with back spasms. Since becoming an everyday player this is his lowest hard hit rate and there are no signs that indicate it’s going to improve the rest of the year. He’s going to hit third the rest of the year and he is still going to be a five category player, but I only see 5-7 home runs.
Xander Bogaerts – at the time of his call-up the scouting reports suggested he would hit for a lot of power, but that hasn’t manifested yet. His hard hit rate ranks in the bottom 25% among qualified hitters. This indicates his batting average has been a result of a high BABIP. The high BABIP is mostly due to playing at home (table below).
At first I wanted to recommend streaming him when he’s at home, but since the shortstop position is so inept that even when the batting average regresses he’ll still be better than anything you’ll find on the waiver wire. My recommendation would be to trade for a shortstop that’s undervalued. Every year Erick Aybar is always underrated but always finish in the top ten among shortstops. He doesn’t dominate one category. Instead, he provides slightly above average production in every category.
Nick Hundley – other than Stephen Vogt, Hundley has been the biggest surprise at the catcher position; providing moderate production in every category. The most valuable statistic he’s provided this season has been the .309 batting average. His hard hit rate is 16.2%, which is below average and most importantly, is the lowest of his career. There are 91 players (with 150 plate appearances) with a hard hit rate that low or lower and their cumulative batting average is .243.
He plays half of his games in Coors which helps tremendously; he has a slash line of .349/.376/.556. On the road his slash line is .264/.319/.364. At home he has a .382 BABIP, which is 30 points higher than the team as a whole at home so regression is going to occur at home. I think he’s going to continue to hit at home, but at the same clip. If you can afford the roster spot you should stream him when he’s only at home.
Nelson Cruz – for the first two months of the season last year Cruz had a .315/.383/.675 slash line with 20 home runs. From June on he had a .249/.308/.4516 slash line and 20 home runs. Last year he benefitted from a great first two months and regressed. The same thing is happening this year.
For the first two months this season he put up a .335/.392/.660 slash line with 18 home runs. Since that point .269/.347/.381 slash line and only three home runs. The primary driver of the .308 batting average is being driven against left handed pitching: .388 batting average with a .422 BABIP. The batting average is going to regress and I don’t see more than 10-12 home runs the rest of the year.
Stephen Vogt – this recommendation is purely based on what the Athletics do at the trade deadline. The majority of at-bats Vogt gets are between the 2-4 position, which is extremely rare for catchers. If he gets traded he’ll likely be playing for a contender and likely bat further down the lineup, lowering his RBI and run scoring opportunities.
Also, he benefitted from a great April: .348/.429/.606 slash line with a .358 BABIP. Since that point he’s a .268/.357/.465 player (.299 BABIP). Vogt will likely hit 9-13 home runs the rest of the year, but the batting average will be in the .260-.270 range.
Mike Moustakas – like Stephen Vogt, Moustakas benefitted greatly from a great first month of the season: .356/.420/.522 slash line with a .377 BABIP. Since the first moth of the season he’s hitting .271/.325/.386 with a .290 BABIP, only four home runs and no stolen bases. If you had him from day one you’re extremely happy, but it’s time to move on.
Billy Burns – among players with at least 250 plate appearances, Burns has the lowest hard hit rate. He currently has a .348 BABIP. He’s also very fast, so the BABIP isn’t as high as it looks. Combine all three data points he will most likely regress in the second half. He’ll probably be a .270/.315/.350 hitter, which still has value. However, if he’s hitting at the clip how long will he be able to bat leadoff? The A’s do not have prototypical leadoff hitter so unless he falls off dramatically he should stay at the leadoff spot. However, if he has a bad 2-3 weeks after the break, I wouldn’t be surprised he gets the Billy Hamilton treatment and he’s batting ninth.
