I want to talk about value. Specifically, getting as much value as possible for every draft pick. Every fantasy owner knows this but so often this mentality is abandoned usually after the third round. I believe this occurs either because owners don’t know how to value players statistical output properly and/or they’re not paying attention to what statistics are on sale.

Fantasy baseball is all about accumulating statistics. Therefore, before the draft even begins every owner has to have statistical thresholds for every statistical category. Having thresholds are like the stars to the sea captain.

If you’re playing in a Roto format I recommend calculating the total statistics, you will need to finish third in every category. I recommend third because if you finish third in every category you should have enough points to win the league. Let’s look at a current example of owners not properly evaluating a player’s statistical output.

Joey Gallo has an average draft position (ADP) among hitters of 69 at NFBC. (If you want real ADP data always go to NFBC because every owner has spent a lot of money to play so you know everyone is trying their best.) I personally have him ranked 109. I’m projecting a .210 batting average with 40 home runs, 92 RBI, 83 runs and 3 stolen bases. You may think I’m pessimistic on Gallo, but let’s look at the projections on FanGraphs (below).

My projection is more bearish compared to the projection systems, but I’m in the ballpark (pun intended). You may be thinking my formula is not valuing home runs properly or my formula is trash. Let’s look at my top 25 hitters versus the top 25 hitters in ADP at NFBC below. (I used ADP data before Francisco Lindor’s injury.)

For the most part I’m sharing a brain with everyone. Of the 28 players listed my rankings are five or less draft spots away from everyone. You may be thinking I’m not valuing power properly but I’m higher on JD Martinez and more importantly, Khris Davis.

So why is there a 40-point difference in ADP for Gallo? It’s a combination of these three reasons: A) his owners are more bullish on his home run totals and think the batting average will improve, B) his owners want to lock in 40 home runs and C) Gallo provides elite output in the home run category.

I can understand the first reason but even if someone is projecting 45 home runs his ADP shouldn’t be that high. The other two reasons further represent why fantasy owners are losing value at his ADP. If Gallo is worth a 11^th round pick and someone drafts him in the 7^th round, then that person is overpaying for his statistical output. Suppose the 7^th round pick has a value of $20. If you take Gallo, whose only worth $15, at a slot that demands you get at least $20 of value you’re putting your team at a deficit. If you continue to overpay for players you’re going to have a mediocre team at best.

Sometimes it is beneficial to overpay, but you should do that for only one or two picks. If you’ve drafted speed-first players who offer no power (Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon) it could be worth to overdraft Gallo because you will need his power to reach the necessary home run totals. However, I bet most owners are not employing that strategy.

Summary: rank all the players and compare your rankings with NFBC’s ADP. This will allow to find bargains and not overpay for players. At the end of the draft if you have got more value than anyone else you have a great chance of winning your league.